NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	124		Excitement	9.5 [130]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +30.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	115		Comeback	1.6 [802]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (HOU): -19.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.05,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.3	0.13	0.19	0.02	19	68%	0.50	6	-0.19	15	73%	0.13
Chris Paul	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.10	0.01	17	65%	0.28	3	-0.08	9	78%	0.01
Gerald Green	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.03	0.00	6	108%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.13,0.13	-0.00	0.11	-0.02	6	50%	0.13	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.06	0.01	16	54%	0.11	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
James Ennis III	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Eric Gordon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	13	33%	-0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	10	35%	-0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	10	70%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	8	81%	0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.02	-0.04	22	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	64%	0.10	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	13	39%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.06
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.00	7	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	2.8	30.4	16.3	24.5	2.8	42.4	147.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +23.5%

HOU +24.0%

HOU +34.2%

LAL -22.0%

LAL -9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	LAL	NBA	HOU	LAL	NBA
this game	14.3	12.0	14.3	113.8	104.5	109.3
season	14.8	13.5		114.0	107.2
opponent	14.2	14.4		108.7	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.3	14.3	14.6	16.6	14.3
LAL	12.1	10.5	12.1	13.4	12.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	65	68	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.09	23	-14	37	14.2	14.6	-0.48	11.7	12.3	-0.56
Eric Gordon	71	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.14	18	-9	27	13.9	15.2	-1.28	11.6	12.7	-1.15
Chris Paul	70	73	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.14	13	-4	17	12.7	17.3	-4.65	11.8	12.2	-0.38
Clint Capela	80	78	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	5	-1	13.7	16.0	-2.30	12.2	11.5	0.70
Gerald Green	40	41	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.15	11	-2	13	14.3	14.4	-0.04	11.6	12.2	-0.64
PJ Tucker	78	78	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	15	-21	15.5	11.5	3.91	12.1	11.7	0.30
James Harden	84	83	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	12	-15	15.2	11.4	3.83	12.2	11.4	0.79
James Ennis III	52	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.20	-10	19	-29	14.9	13.9	1.02	12.5	11.5	0.98
Michael Carter-Williams	5	5	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	14	-19	18.8	14.1	4.67	12.6	11.9	0.67

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	50	50	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-16	23	11.8	12.1	-0.34	13.0	15.5	-2.49
Rajon Rondo	67	68	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.15	8	-17	25	12.0	11.9	0.05	14.5	14.1	0.36
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	44	43	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-12	15	11.4	12.4	-1.00	13.8	14.7	-0.88
Brandon Ingram	66	66	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-8	7	11.9	12.0	-0.06	14.0	14.8	-0.81
Lonzo Ball	57	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	2	-13	12.2	11.7	0.55	15.4	13.2	2.14
Kyle Kuzma	56	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.07	-14	5	-19	11.7	12.2	-0.47	14.5	14.2	0.24
Lance Stephenson	51	52	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	11.9	12.0	-0.15	14.9	13.9	0.99
Josh Hart	72	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.09	-15	6	-21	11.8	12.3	-0.54	14.0	14.9	-0.93
LeBron James	87	85	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	4	-17	12.6	9.7	2.81	14.8	12.9	1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.33,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.21,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.09,0.02,0	92.2%
PHX 88, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	91.9%
ATL 76, CLE 65	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.29,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.01,0.01,0	91.7%