NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	10.5 [44]		MVP	Jeff Teague (MIN): +23.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Comeback	2.4 [559]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -21.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	18	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Paul Millsap	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	8	53%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Will Barton	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06	0.04	-0.09	0.01	22	51%	0.00	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
Wilson Chandler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.23,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.22	0.14	-0.36	-0.01	25	65%	-0.13	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.16	-0.00	13	61%	0.25	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	9	69%	0.22	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.04,0.06,-0.05,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.11	0.01	21	56%	0.29	3	-0.12	13	77%	-0.04
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	-0.01	0.00	19	65%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.01	8	50%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	27.6	15.4	27.3	1.8	33.0	2.4	20.4	154.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +13.3%

MIN +41.5%

DEN -47.2%

MIN +45.9%

DEN -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.8	17.2	14.7	106.0	113.1	107.5
season	14.7	15.3		111.2	111.8
opponent	14.4	14.7		110.2	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.2	13.7	14.8	14.9	16.8	14.8
MIN	16.1	14.5	17.9	19.4	21.3	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	9	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	13.4	15.0	-1.51	16.3	17.3	-0.99
Devin Harris	21	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-7	8	12.8	15.4	-2.54	16.0	17.5	-1.48
Nikola Jokic	88	86	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.27	7	-13	20	14.8	14.7	0.08	17.2	16.9	0.26
Wilson Chandler	91	90	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-7	8	15.1	12.4	2.61	17.2	17.0	0.17
Paul Millsap	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-6	6	16.2	12.3	3.81	18.0	15.6	2.36
Will Barton	79	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-4	2	15.4	12.7	2.73	17.6	15.7	1.83
Jamal Murray	81	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.30	-5	-1	-4	15.3	12.9	2.31	17.5	15.8	1.71
Gary Harris	43	44	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.02	-18	12	-30	12.8	16.3	-3.52	15.5	18.4	-2.89
Mason Plumlee	23	24	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.11	-14	8	-22	12.7	15.5	-2.76	16.6	17.3	-0.70

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	35	35	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-7	20	15.9	17.8	-1.96	13.7	15.4	-1.70
Karl-Anthony Towns	86	89	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.33	1	5	-4	17.4	15.6	1.77	14.9	14.2	0.72
Jeff Teague	78	80	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.30	-1	7	-8	17.4	16.3	1.10	15.2	13.2	2.03
Jimmy Butler	78	79	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	7	-8	17.3	16.6	0.74	15.1	13.8	1.28
Andrew Wiggins	77	78	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.32	-3	9	-12	17.5	16.0	1.48	15.1	14.0	1.11
Nemanja Bjelica	20	19	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	-1	8	18.4	16.8	1.56	13.1	15.2	-2.12
Tyus Jones	21	20	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	-1	8	16.3	17.4	-1.10	13.2	15.2	-2.03
Taj Gibson	64	65	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.36	-5	11	-16	17.3	16.9	0.37	15.7	13.2	2.49
Derrick Rose	23	24	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	-1	8	16.0	17.5	-1.50	13.7	15.2	-1.41
Gorgui Dieng	13	11	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	1	4	15.6	17.4	-1.77	14.2	14.9	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.72,0.66,0.58,0.46,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 110, MIN 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	91.6%
ATL 102, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.85,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,1	90.1%
HOU 99, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.68,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.79,0.71,0.61,0.8,0.88,0.85,0.59,0.46,0.69,0.48,0.43,0.58,1	90.0%