NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	108		Excitement	7.0 [454]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (OKC): +15.6%
Houston Rockets	102		Comeback	2.6 [256]		LVP	Raymond Felton (OKC): -7.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.01	14	65%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.12
Jerami Grant	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	5	86%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Patrick Patterson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Steven Adams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.13	0.10	-0.06	28	39%	0.14	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.02
Paul George	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	17	55%	0.11	5	-0.13	10	90%	0.04
Alex Abrines	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	8	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Corey Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	10	64%	0.17	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.13	0.01	0.09	8	100%	0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	71%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	15	52%	0.11	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.03
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	16	59%	0.13	5	-0.16	12	75%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	0.02	8	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.7	33.6	14.0	31.1	3.4	29.5	138.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -18.1%

OKC +29.4%

OKC +14.3%

OKC +21.0%

OKC +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	HOU	NBA	OKC	HOU	NBA
this game	14.7	15.1	14.7	112.5	105.2	107.5
season	14.2	14.6		109.4	112.8
opponent	14.8	15.3		105.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.0	14.2	18.4	12.8	14.7
HOU	14.2	13.5	15.2	17.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	24	25	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.20	14	-8	22	13.4	15.2	-1.82	19.1	13.7	5.41
Jerami Grant	41	42	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-1	8	13.3	15.8	-2.48	15.8	14.5	1.29
Raymond Felton	27	27	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-7	20	14.2	15.0	-0.77	18.5	13.8	4.73
Alex Abrines	54	53	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	0	6	13.8	16.0	-2.24	16.9	12.9	4.02
Russell Westbrook	77	79	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	3	0	14.6	15.4	-0.78	14.7	16.7	-1.99
Paul George	81	81	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.15	3	3	0	15.4	10.9	4.51	14.4	18.7	-4.37
Corey Brewer	49	50	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	11	-16	15.2	14.3	0.95	13.0	17.3	-4.34
Steven Adams	57	57	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	10	-14	15.6	13.5	2.15	14.5	16.0	-1.48
Carmelo Anthony	70	71	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	13	-20	15.3	13.2	2.17	13.8	18.7	-4.85

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	24	25	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-7	8	18.3	14.1	4.24	15.2	14.6	0.68
Trevor Ariza	66	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.32	5	-11	16	14.1	17.3	-3.21	14.8	14.5	0.30
Chris Paul	71	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-9	12	15.0	15.5	-0.49	15.7	12.5	3.16
James Harden	74	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-8	10	14.6	16.7	-2.03	14.5	15.4	-0.88
Clint Capela	58	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-2	-2	12.1	19.5	-7.37	15.2	14.1	1.12
Luc Mbah a Moute	49	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	4	-14	16.5	13.7	2.84	14.5	14.9	-0.42
Joe Johnson	31	30	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	-11	5	-16	17.3	14.1	3.21	14.5	14.8	-0.30
PJ Tucker	58	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-9	12	14.2	16.5	-2.27	14.6	14.9	-0.34
Gerald Green	54	54	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.14	-19	13	-32	17.4	12.2	5.20	13.5	16.4	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	92.5%
CLE 119, PHX 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.33,0.38,0.23,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.01,0	92.0%
BOS 107, PHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.07,0	92.0%