NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	92		Excitement	5.2 [791]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +11.0%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.0 [1298]		LVP	Bobby Portis (CHI): -20.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Holiday	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.01	10	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Ryan Arcidiacono	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Noah Vonleh	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
David Nwaba	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Cameron Payne	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	12	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Kilpatrick	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Denzel Valentine	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	10	20%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	0.00	16	38%	-0.09	6	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.00	16	59%	0.11	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.00	-0.03	11	65%	0.12	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	68%	0.05	2	-0.01	3	67%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.05	8	42%	0.05	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.04	7	73%	0.01	3	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	7	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	28.5	14.8	28.2	0.7	31.7	132.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.1%

MIA +6.6%

CHI -19.2%

MIA +17.7%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	14.4	14.7	90.2	101.0	107.5
season	14.2	15.1		103.2	105.4
opponent	14.6	15.0		105.8	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.5	12.3	14.8	13.9	13.9
MIA	13.2	16.0	12.9	15.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Arcidiacono	14	15	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.04	5	-16	21	10.6	14.4	-3.81	15.1	14.3	0.81
Justin Holiday	48	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-12	13	12.4	15.2	-2.77	13.9	14.8	-0.89
Jerian Grant	25	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-2	-7	14.3	13.7	0.55	13.3	14.7	-1.36
Sean Kilpatrick	32	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	0	-11	14.6	13.5	1.02	14.0	14.6	-0.59
Robin Lopez	65	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	-1	-9	14.2	13.4	0.80	15.5	12.5	2.94
David Nwaba	74	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-9	7	13.6	14.5	-0.83	14.6	13.7	0.86
Denzel Valentine	50	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-1	-9	15.2	12.6	2.54	14.7	14.0	0.71
Bobby Portis	68	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-6	1	13.6	14.4	-0.74	14.6	13.8	0.77
Noah Vonleh	71	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	13.8	13.9	-0.10	13.1	17.1	-3.97
Cameron Payne	63	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-4	-3	14.4	12.9	1.48	14.6	14.0	0.60

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	73	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.14	13	-2	15	13.3	17.1	-3.77	14.3	12.8	1.45
James Johnson	65	63	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	5	1	14.5	14.1	0.46	14.0	13.6	0.40
Goran Dragic	69	69	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	7	-3	14.6	13.9	0.64	14.2	13.2	0.92
Kelly Olynyk	33	34	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	7	-3	15.4	13.9	1.55	14.3	13.6	0.65
Bam Adebayo	26	25	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.07	9	2	7	13.4	14.7	-1.33	14.4	13.7	0.76
Rodney McGruder	26	26	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.13	2	9	-7	14.2	14.4	-0.24	13.5	14.0	-0.44
Justise Winslow	54	55	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	7	-3	14.7	14.0	0.66	13.4	14.4	-1.00
Dwyane Wade	39	40	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	2	7	14.2	14.5	-0.31	13.4	14.2	-0.80
Wayne Ellington	55	56	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	9	-7	15.4	13.1	2.27	13.8	13.9	-0.13
Tyler Johnson	27	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	7	-3	14.0	14.5	-0.46	13.7	13.9	-0.18
Hassan Whiteside	43	43	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	13	-15	14.2	14.5	-0.36	13.2	14.4	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.57,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 100, POR 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	95.2%
WAS 84, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.75,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
MIN 83, HOU 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.61,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.82,0.8,0.69,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%