NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	141		Excitement	14.1 [3]		MVP	James Johnson (MIA): +62.6%
Miami Heat	149		Comeback	4.9 [303]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -20.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.31	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.13	0.19	0.01	21	71%	0.55	5	-0.24	6	100%	0.13
Jamal Murray	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	16	53%	0.21	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.08
Torrey Craig	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.16	-0.12	0.02	17	72%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	8	54%	0.13	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.07
Mason Plumlee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	43%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Malik Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	54%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.03
Will Barton	-0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	0.06	-0.10	0.03	21	49%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.49,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.59,0.62,0.63	0.63	0.26	0.40	0.03	17	84%	0.65	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.07
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.47	0.22	0.26	0.01	16	81%	0.58	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.00	14	77%	0.36	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	8	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.08	0.05	15	53%	0.11	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.07
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	9	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	9	29%	-0.07	2	-0.05	6	17%	-0.13
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	0.07	-0.27	0.01	13	59%	-0.02	1	-0.19	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	28.1	14.6	26.4	2.5	37.3	2.4	15.2	301.5	43.0	498.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +103.4%

DEN -37.5%

DEN -12.5%

DEN -0.7%

DEN -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.2	14.7	123.7	126.3	107.5
season	14.7	15.1		111.2	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		105.8	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	13.2	14.9	15.8	14.5	20.4	15.0
MIA	13.4	16.4	14.8	15.5	17.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	22	23	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.13	6	-14	20	13.1	15.2	-2.16	15.3	15.1	0.23
Mason Plumlee	48	47	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.30	-3	-5	2	14.3	15.2	-0.86	14.6	15.5	-0.90
Devin Harris	54	53	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-11	14	14.2	15.4	-1.16	15.1	15.2	-0.16
Malik Beasley	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-6	4	0.0	15.0	-14.96	0.0	15.2	-15.16
Wilson Chandler	83	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	0	-8	15.3	13.5	1.90	15.1	15.4	-0.35
Nikola Jokic	92	100	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.55	1	-9	10	14.9	14.6	0.24	15.3	14.6	0.71
Will Barton	87	93	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.35	-7	-1	-6	15.2	13.6	1.63	15.5	14.0	1.42
Jamal Murray	86	90	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	2	-12	15.0	14.3	0.68	14.9	16.0	-1.10
Paul Millsap	79	81	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.34	-12	4	-16	14.7	15.1	-0.41	15.1	15.2	-0.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	94	90	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.51	13	-5	18	15.1	15.5	-0.43	15.2	13.4	1.85
Josh Richardson	83	78	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.53	4	4	0	15.6	14.0	1.61	14.8	14.9	-0.16
Kelly Olynyk	81	82	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.20	18	-10	28	15.2	15.1	0.16	15.0	14.3	0.77
Goran Dragic	83	83	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.02	10	-2	12	15.3	14.9	0.43	14.9	14.6	0.35
Wayne Ellington	78	80	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	-5	18	15.7	14.1	1.61	15.0	14.4	0.56
Tyler Johnson	46	41	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.21	-3	11	-14	14.3	15.7	-1.44	14.0	15.3	-1.30
Rodney McGruder	18	19	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	5	-2	15.1	15.2	-0.12	15.1	14.8	0.26
Justise Winslow	48	45	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	9	-10	14.1	15.9	-1.82	15.0	14.8	0.20
Bam Adebayo	59	52	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.37	-17	25	-42	15.3	15.1	0.19	14.0	15.6	-1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.48,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.18,0.29,0.33,0.48,0.63,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.72,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.92,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, HOU 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.69,0.63,0.46,0.61,0.54,0.78,0.84,0.54,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	86.9%
MIL 99, CLE 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.42,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.77,0.41,0.54,0.47,0.63,0.55,0.9,1	86.5%
MIL 110, MIA 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.61,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.49,0.22,0.25,0.54,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.69,0.64,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.64,0.79,0.98,0.96,1	86.0%