NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	113		Excitement	4.3 [982]		MVP	Devin Harris (DEN): +10.4%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.6 [1094]		LVP	Andre Drummond (DET): -9.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.05	4	112%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	12	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Buycks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.07	15	61%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
James Ennis III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Moreland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.14	21	58%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	18	48%	-0.03	3	-0.07	8	37%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	-0.00	6	71%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	73%	0.10	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.02	15	64%	0.12	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.05	17	67%	0.09	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	90%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	16	57%	0.08	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	40%	0.00	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	58%	0.02	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	6	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.8	29.6	14.0	25.7	1.7	33.5	128.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.1%

DEN +13.0%

DEN +4.4%

DEN +4.2%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	14.3	14.7	111.9	117.6	107.5
season	14.9	14.7		106.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.7		109.9	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.3	15.0	13.8	14.1	14.0
DEN	14.4	13.8	15.0	14.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Moreland	12	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	2	-11	16.2	13.7	2.51	13.7	14.4	-0.76
Luke Kennard	37	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.30	4	-11	15	12.1	15.1	-3.01	15.1	13.8	1.34
Stanley Johnson	33	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	14.9	13.6	1.34	14.6	14.2	0.34
Ish Smith	54	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	4	-15	14.4	13.6	0.83	14.0	14.7	-0.77
Anthony Tolliver	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-4	1	14.1	14.0	0.06	15.1	13.8	1.32
Dwight Buycks	47	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-11	15	13.6	14.4	-0.83	14.7	14.0	0.77
Blake Griffin	79	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-8	9	14.0	14.3	-0.36	14.2	14.7	-0.49
Reggie Bullock	75	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-6	5	14.1	13.7	0.42	14.0	15.3	-1.31
James Ennis III	57	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	5	-17	14.6	13.3	1.32	14.1	14.6	-0.54
Andre Drummond	71	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-4	1	13.7	14.8	-1.03	14.1	14.9	-0.74

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	66	66	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	-2	11	14.1	14.8	-0.69	14.1	13.9	0.28
Nikola Jokic	79	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-8	23	13.9	15.7	-1.70	14.8	11.4	3.43
Paul Millsap	67	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-5	17	13.4	16.2	-2.80	14.2	13.8	0.37
Jamal Murray	71	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.28	1	6	-5	13.7	15.8	-2.16	14.2	13.8	0.39
Gary Harris	74	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	7	-7	13.9	15.5	-1.61	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Wilson Chandler	85	83	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.55	-10	17	-27	15.1	10.6	4.49	13.6	16.2	-2.59
Devin Harris	31	30	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	1	5	15.8	13.7	2.16	13.8	14.2	-0.39
Mason Plumlee	26	26	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	9	-11	16.2	13.7	2.44	12.7	14.5	-1.81
Trey Lyles	24	23	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	4	-1	15.5	14.0	1.58	15.0	13.8	1.24
Malik Beasley	21	21	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	17	-27	14.1	14.4	-0.30	14.2	14.0	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.83,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 85, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
CHI 80, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DET 86, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%