NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	3.5 [1103]		MVP	James Jones (MIA): +14.3%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.2 [1142]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (MIL): -10.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.02	23	57%	0.08	2	-0.01	10	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.04	15	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	11	55%	-0.04
Joe Alexander	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	43%	-0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	15	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.02	5	92%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	0.01	0.06	9	89%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	75%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	17	60%	0.12	5	-0.09	11	82%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	13	39%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	11	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	42%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	30.2	15.5	27.9	1.8	26.5	129.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.4%

MIA +4.3%

MIA +3.0%

MIL -7.0%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.2	15.5	89.5	106.2	106.4
season	15.0	16.0		104.9	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.7	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.2	16.3	13.3	14.0	15.0
MIA	12.0	14.4	18.6	16.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-16	15	10.0	15.3	-5.30	20.8	14.8	6.02
Luke Ridnour	20	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.22	7	-24	31	14.7	15.0	-0.28	16.3	14.9	1.41
Keith Bogans	14	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-17	17	13.0	15.3	-2.31	16.6	15.0	1.62
Charlie Bell	40	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	-5	-7	16.0	14.2	1.74	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Joe Alexander	48	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-12	7	14.6	15.4	-0.82	15.9	14.5	1.37
Dan Gadzuric	65	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	-10	3	15.1	14.7	0.44	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Francisco Elson	30	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	-7	-3	14.7	15.1	-0.44	15.6	15.0	0.55
Charlie Villanueva	47	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	-5	-7	15.4	14.6	0.82	14.5	15.9	-1.37
Luc Mbah a Moute	47	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-11	5	14.1	15.9	-1.79	16.1	14.2	1.87
Richard Jefferson	85	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	-3	-11	15.2	13.3	1.86	14.9	17.4	-2.47
Ramon Sessions	73	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.19	-25	8	-33	15.6	12.8	2.80	14.2	18.2	-3.93

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	74	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	0	17	15.2	15.1	0.07	15.1	14.6	0.47
James Jones	45	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.14	18	-1	19	14.8	15.5	-0.65	14.8	15.1	-0.32
Udonis Haslem	68	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	6	5	15.2	15.0	0.21	14.7	15.5	-0.80
Jermaine O'Neal	57	56	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.14	14	3	11	15.2	15.2	0.01	15.1	14.8	0.34
Daequan Cook	28	27	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	8	1	15.2	15.2	0.04	15.1	14.9	0.20
Michael Beasley	41	40	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	14	-11	15.6	14.9	0.69	14.7	15.1	-0.38
Mario Chalmers	66	65	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	6	5	14.9	15.8	-0.89	15.6	13.7	1.90
Luther Head	31	32	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	16	-15	15.0	15.3	-0.32	14.6	15.2	-0.56
Jamaal Magloire	26	27	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	11	-5	14.4	15.5	-1.10	15.6	14.7	0.87
Jamario Moon	40	40	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	21	-25	15.7	14.8	0.84	14.8	15.1	-0.25
Chris Quinn	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	18	-19	20.0	15.0	5.02	8.5	15.3	-6.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 113, DEN 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.83,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1	96.4%
MIN 92, CLE 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.93,0.95,0.91,1	96.2%
CHI 93, UTA 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1	96.1%