NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	116		Excitement	8.7 [181]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +34.1%
Denver Nuggets	125		Comeback	2.6 [673]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (LAL): -18.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.30	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.3	0.23	0.09	0.02	18	74%	0.30	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	11	71%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Wear	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Ennis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.06	0.00	3	133%	0.10	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Ivica Zubac	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1	-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	16	47%	0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	-0.00	12	55%	0.10	4	-0.21	9	67%	-0.03
Isaiah Thomas	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	13	38%	-0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.13	0.22	0.01	12	78%	0.39	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Gary Harris	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.00	0.01	10	86%	0.21	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	7	71%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	4	57%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.00	14	66%	0.16	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	7	47%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.06,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.04	12	63%	0.16	4	-0.15	11	91%	0.04
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.8	32.6	1.0	26.2	2.3	33.3	122.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +35.8%

DEN +28.0%

LAL -31.5%

DEN +19.9%

LAL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.7	15.1	14.7	114.9	126.3	107.5
season	13.7	14.7		105.7	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.8		109.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.8	13.6	13.1	13.5	13.7
DEN	15.8	14.1	15.7	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Ennis	36	35	0.29	-0.79	1.09	-0.09	13	-22	35	12.0	14.7	-2.72	16.3	14.4	1.89
Isaiah Thomas	64	61	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.09	-1	-8	7	13.2	14.7	-1.55	15.1	15.1	0.02
Travis Wear	18	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-14	19	14.1	13.7	0.40	16.8	14.7	2.10
Kyle Kuzma	83	81	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-10	11	12.9	17.4	-4.46	15.2	14.6	0.59
Ivica Zubac	17	16	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	0	-9	14.8	13.5	1.25	16.0	14.9	1.08
Julius Randle	58	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	14.6	12.6	1.95	15.2	15.0	0.15
Lonzo Ball	80	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.12	-14	5	-19	13.9	13.2	0.67	14.6	17.0	-2.42
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	81	80	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	7	-23	14.4	11.0	3.40	14.7	16.6	-1.84
Brook Lopez	68	66	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.17	-18	9	-27	14.1	12.9	1.25	14.6	16.1	-1.55

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	79	82	1.05	-0.55	1.60	0.32	25	-16	41	14.8	16.4	-1.64	14.2	11.6	2.58
Paul Millsap	64	63	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-3	15	14.3	16.5	-2.25	14.4	12.6	1.79
Nikola Jokic	69	70	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-4	17	14.4	16.7	-2.26	14.1	12.8	1.28
Jamal Murray	75	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	5	-1	14.7	16.2	-1.42	13.8	13.5	0.33
Gary Harris	82	82	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	7	-5	15.0	15.8	-0.81	13.5	14.6	-1.05
Trey Lyles	22	23	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	6	-3	15.7	14.9	0.76	14.0	13.6	0.36
Mason Plumlee	36	37	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	15	-21	17.0	14.0	3.04	12.9	14.2	-1.31
Juancho Hernangomez	37	41	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.08	-3	12	-15	15.9	14.6	1.37	12.5	14.6	-2.12
Devin Harris	31	33	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.11	-5	14	-19	16.6	14.4	2.22	13.0	14.1	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.39,0.69,0.85,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 87, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.5,0.52,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.74,1	91.4%
LAL 102, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.42,0.43,0.29,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.39,0.68,0.55,0.56,0.85,1	91.2%
SAC 102, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.69,0.73,1	90.4%