NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	114		Excitement	2.6 [1241]		MVP	Zach Randolph (SAC): +8.5%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	1.2 [361]		LVP	J.J. Barea (DAL): -5.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	15	73%	0.13	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	17	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	72%	0.06	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	0.00	0.05	5	92%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Justin Jackson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	9	63%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
JaKarr Sampson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	46%	-0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	0.00	0.07	9	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.06	14	55%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Maxi Kleber	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salah Mejri	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Collinsworth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	15	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	0.00	0.07	10	52%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	-0.00
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	0.00	0.12	13	73%	-0.02	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	29.4	14.6	25.8	2.4	27.6	124.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +41.0%

DAL -4.2%

SAC +10.8%

SAC +0.3%

SAC +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	16.0	14.5	14.7	121.3	114.7	107.5
season	15.4	15.4		102.9	105.3
opponent	14.3	14.7		108.1	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.6	15.1	17.7	17.8	16.0
DAL	15.2	15.5	13.0	14.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Cauley-Stein	55	55	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	-3	11	15.5	16.7	-1.19	15.1	13.5	1.62
Bogdan Bogdanovic	67	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.42	-3	8	-11	15.9	16.2	-0.28	14.1	15.3	-1.22
De'Aaron Fox	62	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.45	-5	10	-15	15.9	16.2	-0.30	14.3	14.8	-0.52
Justin Jackson	61	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.41	-4	9	-13	16.1	15.9	0.17	14.0	15.3	-1.26
Zach Randolph	50	51	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	-4	13	15.7	16.4	-0.64	15.3	13.5	1.88
Vince Carter	52	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-1	7	16.3	15.7	0.64	14.3	14.6	-0.30
Buddy Hield	34	35	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.12	13	-8	21	16.0	16.0	-0.08	14.7	14.3	0.44
Kosta Koufos	44	44	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.33	-4	9	-13	16.4	15.7	0.64	13.5	15.3	-1.88
Garrett Temple	36	38	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.04	8	-3	11	16.1	16.0	0.10	14.9	14.1	0.81
JaKarr Sampson	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	8	-11	18.2	15.8	2.43	14.9	14.4	0.47

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Jones	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-4	3	0.0	14.6	-14.62	0.0	16.0	-16.02
Maxi Kleber	5	4	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-1	-3	16.6	14.3	2.26	16.5	16.0	0.50
Salah Mejri	10	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-3	1	15.6	14.3	1.27	15.2	16.1	-0.92
Doug McDermott	37	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.35	7	-12	19	14.2	14.7	-0.49	16.6	15.6	0.99
Kyle Collinsworth	36	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.36	7	-12	19	14.7	14.3	0.33	16.9	15.5	1.39
Dirk Nowitzki	63	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.46	8	-13	21	14.3	14.9	-0.62	16.0	16.0	-0.02
J.J. Barea	63	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.46	8	-13	21	14.3	14.9	-0.62	16.0	16.0	-0.02
Yogi Ferrell	30	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	6	-17	14.6	14.4	0.25	15.5	16.2	-0.76
Dwight Powell	51	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	14.3	14.7	-0.41	16.5	15.5	0.98
Wesley Matthews	58	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.00	-12	7	-19	14.7	14.2	0.49	15.6	16.6	-0.99
Dennis Smith Jr.	60	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	8	-21	14.7	14.0	0.69	15.7	16.5	-0.75
Harrison Barnes	61	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	9	-23	14.5	14.4	0.03	15.7	16.5	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, NOK 68	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.6%
DET 101, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
PHI 85, CHI 67	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%