NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	85		Excitement	2.0 [1239]		MVP	Matt Geiger (PHI): +2.7%
Chicago Bulls	67		Comeback	1.1 [1063]		LVP	Elton Brand (CHI): -7.3%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Geiger	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	58%	0.03	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
George Lynch	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	6	64%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrone Hill	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	14	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Todd MacCulloch	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	3	30%	-0.00	2	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Jumaine Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	70%	0.04	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Eric Snow	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	7	37%	-0.01	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dalibor Bagaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Guyton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.05	13	62%	-0.01	3	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	5	20%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	13	41%	-0.01	3	-0.03	1	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	20	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	46%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	31.5	15.7	20.1	2.4	25.3	120.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +33.7%

PHI +5.4%

PHI +2.7%

PHI +6.5%

PHI +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	CHI	NBA	PHI	CHI	NBA
this game	16.7	18.4	15.5	103.7	81.7	100.9
season	15.7	16.4		101.4	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		104.9	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	14.1	15.6	20.9	17.4	16.7
CHI	16.6	17.1	21.4	19.6	18.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	58	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.33	26	-8	34	15.3	20.2	-4.91	17.6	20.4	-2.79
Dikembe Mutombo	53	55	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.22	22	-4	26	16.9	16.3	0.60	17.5	20.3	-2.79
Aaron McKie	60	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.09	17	1	16	17.2	15.3	1.94	18.5	18.3	0.19
George Lynch	53	52	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.20	20	-2	22	15.0	19.8	-4.79	18.8	17.8	0.94
Tyrone Hill	45	47	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.16	17	1	16	17.7	15.5	2.15	18.0	19.1	-1.10
Kevin Ollie	36	34	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.24	-3	21	-24	17.6	16.0	1.68	19.9	17.4	2.44
Matt Geiger	29	26	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	16	-14	16.2	16.9	-0.70	21.4	17.1	4.33
Rodney Buford	33	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	18	-18	16.3	17.0	-0.71	19.0	18.1	0.89
Jumaine Jones	28	29	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	21	-24	18.9	15.6	3.34	18.6	18.3	0.30
Todd MacCulloch	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	22	-26	18.5	16.4	2.06	17.9	18.5	-0.60
Anthony Miller	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	22	-26	16.8	16.7	0.11	9.4	19.0	-9.61

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Guyton	20	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-15	12	19.4	18.1	1.29	16.0	16.9	-0.92
Dalibor Bagaric	21	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.07	-1	-17	16	18.3	18.5	-0.19	16.5	16.8	-0.33
Corey Benjamin	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-16	14	17.7	18.9	-1.18	16.1	17.1	-1.04
Michael Ruffin	33	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-18	18	18.7	18.2	0.45	19.0	15.2	3.83
Elton Brand	18	19	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	-6	-6	16.1	19.1	-2.97	13.4	17.7	-4.26
Marcus Fizer	52	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-9	0	18.1	19.0	-0.96	16.1	17.6	-1.53
Brad Miller	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	-6	-6	18.9	17.6	1.30	17.4	15.3	2.14
Ron Mercer	56	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	-4	-10	19.5	16.1	3.44	16.5	17.2	-0.73
Jamal Crawford	57	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-5	-8	18.2	18.8	-0.59	17.3	15.4	1.92
Fred Hoiberg	64	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.27	-24	6	-30	18.2	19.3	-1.16	16.7	16.8	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 121, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%
PHI 104, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	97.6%
LAC 107, WAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%