NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	4.7 [906]		MVP	James Johnson (MIA): +7.2%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.9 [621]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -15.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Kilpatrick	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	43%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	45%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Eric Bledsoe	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	15	59%	0.03	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.04	0.07	21	47%	-0.05	5	-0.11	7	86%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.02	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	16	56%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	12	59%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	11	24%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	14	43%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	0.07	10	55%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	-0.05	6	25%	-0.03	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	26.4	15.3	26.5	0.7	40.7	136.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +12.0%

MIL -0.5%

MIA +27.6%

MIA +7.0%

MIA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	15.4	14.7	85.9	94.8	107.5
season	14.3	15.1		108.5	105.4
opponent	14.6	15.4		105.8	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.8	14.4	17.6	10.9	14.1
MIA	16.9	14.4	12.4	18.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Kilpatrick	13	13	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.06	7	-13	20	14.1	14.1	-0.04	14.2	15.6	-1.41
John Henson	42	41	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-6	6	14.4	13.9	0.47	15.5	15.4	0.15
Tyler Zeller	30	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.34	10	-16	26	11.9	15.1	-3.22	17.5	14.6	2.88
Jason Terry	31	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	3	-12	15.9	13.3	2.66	14.1	16.1	-1.96
Giannis Antetokounmpo	83	81	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-10	14	13.3	18.5	-5.23	15.9	12.8	3.14
Tony Snell	63	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.39	5	-11	16	12.8	16.3	-3.49	16.3	14.0	2.23
Sterling Brown	29	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.11	-13	7	-20	16.6	13.1	3.55	13.3	16.4	-3.11
Eric Bledsoe	75	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-9	12	13.5	16.2	-2.71	16.2	13.2	2.99
Khris Middleton	65	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-3	0	13.3	15.6	-2.34	16.1	14.3	1.79
Thon Maker	27	28	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.04	-14	8	-22	16.2	13.3	2.85	13.3	16.3	-3.00
Jabari Parker	37	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.07	-20	14	-34	17.4	12.1	5.30	13.7	16.5	-2.82

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	76	76	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.07	22	-16	38	14.9	17.6	-2.72	14.5	12.7	1.84
Goran Dragic	57	56	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-5	16	15.7	15.0	0.71	13.5	15.0	-1.49
Justise Winslow	33	32	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.00	13	-7	20	14.7	15.8	-1.10	15.1	13.6	1.45
Wayne Ellington	56	60	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	0	6	14.8	16.4	-1.63	15.3	12.2	3.10
James Johnson	40	42	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	2	2	14.6	16.0	-1.37	15.7	12.9	2.83
Bam Adebayo	65	67	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	12	-18	15.3	15.8	-0.58	13.5	15.3	-1.82
Hassan Whiteside	51	53	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	9	-12	16.6	14.1	2.47	13.7	14.6	-0.89
Dwyane Wade	42	47	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	9	-12	15.3	15.6	-0.33	14.1	14.2	-0.09
Josh Richardson	60	62	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.37	-14	20	-34	16.8	13.2	3.61	12.4	17.0	-4.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, VAN 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
UTA 91, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.49,0.52,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
DET 90, CLE 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%