NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	8.0 [270]		MVP	Chris Paul (HOU): +15.4%
Houston Rockets	99		Comeback	2.8 [883]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): -17.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	4	70%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Justise Winslow	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	54%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Derrick Walton Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	12	50%	0.10	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	46%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	13	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.02	0.04	9	50%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	-0.02
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.09	0.02	-0.02	13	38%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.18	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.16,-0.18	-0.01	-0.16	0.00	16	69%	0.14	7	-0.32	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.13	-0.01	13	59%	0.21	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	5	90%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.08	0.02	10	56%	0.11	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	15	47%	0.07	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	64%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.02	26	50%	0.15	6	-0.20	4	75%	-0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	25.2	13.0	26.5	1.8	29.2	122.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +26.3%

HOU +1.2%

MIA -5.5%

HOU +25.6%

HOU +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.4	14.6	14.7	96.8	106.5	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.6		105.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	18.3	17.3	14.8	16.4
HOU	14.0	14.5	13.4	16.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	40	40	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.07	-2	-7	5	16.7	16.2	0.55	13.0	15.8	-2.77
Bam Adebayo	35	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-8	7	17.3	15.8	1.44	13.8	15.0	-1.24
Derrick Walton Jr.	22	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-4	-1	17.4	16.1	1.28	14.1	14.7	-0.57
Justise Winslow	53	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-2	-5	17.6	14.7	2.92	13.6	15.8	-2.15
Josh Richardson	72	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.28	1	-10	11	15.6	19.0	-3.31	15.2	12.6	2.53
Hassan Whiteside	57	57	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-3	-3	16.0	17.0	-1.05	15.5	13.2	2.26
Wayne Ellington	77	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-2	-5	15.9	18.7	-2.85	14.6	14.7	-0.18
James Johnson	54	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	0	-9	16.0	16.9	-0.92	15.3	13.5	1.78
Derrick Jones Jr.	55	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	0	-9	16.5	16.3	0.17	14.9	14.1	0.87

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	42	41	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-7	23	14.0	15.1	-1.06	17.7	15.4	2.27
Chris Paul	68	69	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.22	12	-3	15	14.7	14.2	0.47	16.6	15.7	0.91
Eric Gordon	57	56	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	0	9	14.1	15.3	-1.23	16.4	16.4	0.06
Clint Capela	54	53	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-1	11	15.1	13.9	1.18	15.1	18.1	-3.09
James Harden	69	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	3	3	15.1	13.0	2.07	15.5	18.9	-3.41
PJ Tucker	46	46	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	4	1	13.3	15.8	-2.44	17.3	15.5	1.77
Ryan Anderson	56	57	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	10	-11	14.9	14.1	0.74	16.5	16.2	0.31
Nene	19	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	12	-15	13.7	14.8	-1.13	17.4	16.1	1.24
Trevor Ariza	54	56	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	18	-27	15.3	13.6	1.62	16.3	16.5	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.65,0.55,0.72,0.85,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.96,0.98,1	92.7%
GSW 85, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.85,0.95,1	91.5%
NYK 89, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.59,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.69,0.92,1	91.4%