NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	5.0 [847]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +17.7%
Golden State Warriors	124		Comeback	1.0 [1226]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -6.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	5	100%	0.13	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Trey Lyles	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	15	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	5	40%	-0.03
Torrey Craig	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.12	-0.02	0.07	18	61%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.05	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	16	63%	0.12	6	-0.17	3	100%	0.02
Will Barton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	22	44%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.03	-0.02	17	73%	0.31	6	-0.13	10	90%	0.03
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.02	-0.04	17	56%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.01	0.04	12	77%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	55%	0.05	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.01
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	7	69%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	62%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	24.9	14.0	24.2	2.6	30.6	123.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +55.9%

GSW +1.6%

DEN -2.3%

DEN -7.2%

GSW +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	13.9	14.7	116.3	127.8	107.5
season	14.7	13.7		111.2	112.6
opponent	15.1	14.7		105.8	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	17.9	16.6	15.0	15.7
GSW	13.1	15.6	12.7	14.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	7	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-9	8	10.6	16.1	-5.48	13.7	13.9	-0.21
Torrey Craig	28	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-1	-8	15.5	15.7	-0.28	14.0	13.8	0.24
Nikola Jokic	72	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-12	14	15.4	16.5	-1.09	14.3	12.4	1.88
Wilson Chandler	81	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-7	4	15.5	16.2	-0.69	13.3	16.2	-2.85
Mason Plumlee	53	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	2	-14	17.5	13.5	4.02	14.2	13.5	0.70
Trey Lyles	56	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-6	2	14.8	16.8	-1.96	13.6	14.2	-0.66
Gary Harris	73	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-6	2	15.4	16.5	-1.10	13.3	15.5	-2.12
Jamal Murray	83	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.19	-6	-4	-2	16.0	13.7	2.36	14.3	11.2	3.04
Will Barton	37	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	3	-16	16.0	15.5	0.50	14.1	13.7	0.44

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Bell	38	40	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-2	14	14.7	13.3	1.35	13.6	17.1	-3.53
Klay Thompson	72	72	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	0	10	14.2	12.9	1.27	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Stephen Curry	73	73	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	7	-4	13.3	15.5	-2.23	15.2	17.0	-1.79
Patrick McCaw	28	27	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	4	2	13.5	14.0	-0.51	15.0	15.9	-0.86
Nick Young	31	33	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	4	2	13.4	14.1	-0.75	16.2	15.4	0.78
Omri Casspi	29	29	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	8	-6	12.9	14.3	-1.38	14.9	16.0	-1.09
Draymond Green	72	73	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	10	-10	13.6	14.8	-1.20	16.2	14.0	2.23
David West	30	29	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	6	-2	15.1	13.3	1.74	18.0	14.7	3.37
Andre Iguodala	60	60	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	10	-10	13.9	13.8	0.05	15.6	15.8	-0.21
Shaun Livingston	25	27	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	6	-2	15.7	13.2	2.50	16.9	15.2	1.69
Zaza Pachulia	27	27	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	7	-4	13.1	14.2	-1.10	16.4	15.4	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.65,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
BOS 90, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
SAC 101, SAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%