NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	90		Excitement	4.3 [972]		MVP	Devin Brown (SAS): +8.3%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	1.1 [1068]		LVP	Gary Payton (BOS): -10.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	13	52%	0.02	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jiri Welsch	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	6	67%	0.01	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Justin Reed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	56%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	11	78%	0.13	6	-0.13	5	80%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Al Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	11	45%	-0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.02	0.04	11	68%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	17	71%	0.15	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	13	58%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	8	58%	0.06	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	2	17%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	47%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.3	26.7	17.0	25.0	2.4	27.0	127.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.5%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +16.8%

BOS -2.4%

SAS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	17.3	15.5	98.9	117.6	104.0
season	14.4	16.3		104.7	105.8
opponent	15.6	16.0		98.4	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.9	16.0	15.2	12.3	14.4
SAS	16.7	15.3	16.8	20.4	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Reed	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-13	9	20.0	14.2	5.82	14.0	17.4	-3.39
Al Jefferson	27	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-12	7	13.6	14.7	-1.06	20.5	15.9	4.61
Kendrick Perkins	18	17	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.13	-8	-9	1	16.7	13.8	2.93	13.4	18.2	-4.82
Tony Allen	20	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-14	11	14.5	14.3	0.16	16.9	17.4	-0.48
Mark Blount	50	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-14	11	14.5	14.2	0.28	17.7	16.8	0.86
Jiri Welsch	60	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-14	11	14.3	14.5	-0.22	17.6	16.5	1.10
Gary Payton	50	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-15	13	14.5	14.2	0.28	17.4	17.1	0.22
Ricky Davis	59	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-13	9	13.6	15.8	-2.27	17.4	17.1	0.34
Walter McCarty	25	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-5	-7	15.8	13.8	1.91	16.3	17.6	-1.32
Marcus Banks	41	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.11	-15	-2	-13	14.2	14.5	-0.28	16.7	17.7	-0.99
Raef LaFrentz	37	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-4	-9	14.3	14.4	-0.13	16.6	17.8	-1.19
Paul Pierce	65	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	-4	-9	13.9	15.5	-1.52	17.5	16.7	0.81

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	67	69	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.13	25	-8	33	17.0	18.1	-1.15	14.8	13.2	1.57
Devin Brown	61	62	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.10	23	-6	29	17.1	17.7	-0.58	15.3	12.5	2.78
Brent Barry	29	29	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.01	19	-2	21	14.4	18.6	-4.25	16.2	13.5	2.64
Rasho Nesterovic	48	49	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	0	17	16.2	18.5	-2.30	14.9	13.8	1.05
Robert Horry	34	33	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	7	3	18.1	16.8	1.35	13.8	14.7	-0.82
Tim Duncan	62	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	10	-3	17.6	16.7	0.91	14.1	15.0	-0.85
Malik Rose	28	28	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	15	-13	18.2	16.8	1.41	15.0	14.1	0.85
Mike Wilks	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	16	-15	14.0	17.4	-3.39	10.0	14.5	-4.47
Bruce Bowen	51	50	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	17	-17	17.9	16.4	1.47	13.5	15.4	-1.85
Beno Udrih	24	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.13	-8	25	-33	18.1	17.0	1.15	13.2	14.8	-1.57
Manu Ginobili	48	48	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.21	-11	28	-39	18.3	16.1	2.24	13.1	15.8	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 93, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
SAC 101, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
PHI 80, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%