NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	101		Excitement	5.2 [799]		MVP	Tobias Harris (DET): +19.0%
Detroit Pistons	108		Comeback	2.0 [266]		LVP	Chris Paul (HOU): -11.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.02	14	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tarik Black	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.03	0.06	6	93%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Briante Weber	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	15	45%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	13	58%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	15	47%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	9	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	0.00	-0.03	0.08	10	70%	0.02	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.02	-0.02	15	66%	0.19	0	0.00	11	73%	0.04
Dwight Buycks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.01	-0.05	9	80%	0.18	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	-0.01	0.05	6	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	12	61%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Eric Moreland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	15	40%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	25.3	14.7	24.2	2.4	33.3	127.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +41.1%

HOU -2.6%

HOU -5.8%

DET +13.8%

DET +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	14.6	16.1	14.7	108.6	113.7	107.5
season	14.6	14.9		112.8	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.8		106.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.5	15.0	14.7	12.5	14.6
DET	17.7	13.8	16.0	17.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Tucker	50	50	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.48	18	-25	43	13.7	15.5	-1.79	15.5	16.7	-1.25
Briante Weber	21	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-5	3	14.5	14.6	-0.12	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Tarik Black	40	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.34	8	-15	23	13.4	15.5	-2.05	15.3	16.7	-1.41
Chris Paul	68	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-7	7	14.6	14.6	-0.04	16.6	14.8	1.78
Gerald Green	56	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	3	-13	15.2	13.5	1.71	15.6	16.8	-1.18
Trevor Ariza	67	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	14.6	14.4	0.26	16.6	14.9	1.70
Clint Capela	53	52	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.05	-15	8	-23	15.5	13.4	2.05	16.7	15.3	1.41
Eric Gordon	68	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	13.8	16.6	-2.83	15.5	17.7	-2.22
Ryan Anderson	42	44	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.16	-24	17	-41	15.8	13.5	2.30	17.0	15.2	1.81

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Bradley	78	77	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	2	3	16.2	15.3	0.92	14.4	15.5	-1.12
Ish Smith	52	50	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	5	-3	15.9	16.2	-0.24	14.2	15.0	-0.89
Tobias Harris	63	62	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.33	-1	8	-9	16.7	14.7	2.06	14.1	15.5	-1.42
Reggie Bullock	64	63	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	9	-11	16.5	15.1	1.42	14.0	15.8	-1.77
Eric Moreland	69	68	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	9	-11	16.8	14.1	2.72	14.8	14.0	0.72
Luke Kennard	47	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	-4	15	15.5	16.6	-1.16	15.7	13.5	2.18
Boban Marjanovic	26	24	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.03	8	-1	9	14.0	16.8	-2.83	14.5	14.6	-0.09
Anthony Tolliver	33	32	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	-2	11	14.3	17.0	-2.63	15.1	14.3	0.85
Dwight Buycks	43	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	2	3	16.2	15.9	0.24	15.0	14.2	0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 85, OKC 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.77,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
LAL 90, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.55,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
DEN 86, SEA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%