NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	7.0 [463]		MVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): +42.4%
Boston Celtics	89		Comeback	3.4 [109]		LVP	Terry Rozier (BOS): -12.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.42,0.42	0.22	0.18	-0.02	15	91%	0.51	4	-0.09	5	40%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.01	15	53%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Derrick Walton Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	11	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	11	38%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Mickey	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	8	44%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	12	62%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Guerschon Yabusele	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.00	10	73%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.04
Daniel Theis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.14,-0.04	-0.04	0.11	-0.11	0.04	24	59%	0.03	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	10	24%	-0.08	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	5	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	29.2	14.6	27.6	2.5	34.9	132.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.7%

MIA +3.2%

MIA +9.4%

BOS -9.0%

MIA +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.8	14.5	14.7	97.8	96.7	107.5
season	15.1	15.1		105.4	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.6		103.5	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	15.7	17.1	17.5	16.8
BOS	14.5	14.9	15.6	13.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	72	75	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-6	13	16.6	17.4	-0.80	14.5	14.7	-0.21
Tyler Johnson	72	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.56	-1	2	-3	16.3	18.5	-2.27	14.4	14.9	-0.47
Kelly Olynyk	72	72	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.29	5	-4	9	16.5	17.8	-1.31	14.7	13.8	0.94
Bam Adebayo	38	39	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.28	5	-4	9	17.1	16.5	0.57	15.2	14.0	1.21
Dion Waiters	69	70	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	3	-5	17.4	14.9	2.48	14.5	14.7	-0.26
Wayne Ellington	61	60	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.36	-7	8	-15	16.9	16.5	0.34	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Jordan Mickey	46	45	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.12	-1	2	-3	17.5	16.1	1.37	14.8	14.3	0.48
Udonis Haslem	16	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	0	1	16.3	16.9	-0.56	13.4	14.8	-1.35
Derrick Walton Jr.	14	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	3	-5	15.5	17.0	-1.50	14.5	14.5	-0.04

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	34	33	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.03	6	-7	13	14.0	14.9	-0.89	17.0	16.6	0.36
Terry Rozier	33	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	0	-1	14.2	14.7	-0.45	15.9	17.3	-1.34
Guerschon Yabusele	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	0	-1	13.9	14.7	-0.80	17.6	16.6	0.99
Shane Larkin	16	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	3	-7	16.3	14.2	2.15	15.2	17.1	-1.92
Semi Ojeleye	21	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	3	-7	13.1	15.0	-1.86	16.3	16.9	-0.54
Jaylen Brown	61	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.42	9	-10	19	14.4	14.8	-0.41	17.1	16.2	0.85
Jayson Tatum	54	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-4	7	14.5	14.6	-0.17	16.7	16.9	-0.16
Kyrie Irving	71	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.51	4	-5	9	14.4	15.0	-0.67	17.5	14.5	2.99
Marcus Smart	71	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-1	1	14.2	15.7	-1.47	16.9	16.3	0.68
Daniel Theis	34	37	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	3	-7	14.4	14.6	-0.24	17.7	16.2	1.51
Al Horford	50	51	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.13	-13	12	-25	16.4	12.3	4.05	15.5	18.4	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.26,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 91, NJN 83	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.59,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.43,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.08,0.22,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.5%
WAS 107, MIL 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.26,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.08,0	92.3%
DAL 96, TOR 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.3%