NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	107		Excitement	7.1 [443]		MVP	Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): +19.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	4.5 [226]		LVP	Matthew Dellavedova (MIL): -11.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sheldon McClellan	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	5	73%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	14	61%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	19	60%	0.16	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Markieff Morris	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	15	62%	0.15	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Otto Porter	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	8	65%	0.09	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
John Wall	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	15	50%	0.08	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Trey Burke	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.21,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.13	0.00	15	69%	0.27	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.02	-0.00	9	78%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	125%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	12	46%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.07	-0.12	0.03	21	55%	0.05	2	-0.13	9	78%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	8	31%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	5	20%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	25.2	15.4	28.4	2.4	34.5	130.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +36.7%

MIL -7.7%

WAS +33.2%

MIL -10.9%

MIL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.8	14.8	108.1	103.1	107.7
season	14.4	14.9		109.9	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		107.8	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.3	16.5	13.9	14.0	14.4
MIL	15.0	13.0	17.4	14.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otto Porter	79	80	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.33	9	-3	12	13.9	16.3	-2.39	15.0	14.0	1.04
John Wall	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.25	11	-5	16	14.5	14.2	0.25	15.0	14.5	0.48
Marcin Gortat	76	75	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	14.7	13.5	1.19	15.0	14.3	0.71
Bradley Beal	70	71	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	-1	8	15.1	12.7	2.46	15.3	13.6	1.73
Kelly Oubre Jr.	55	52	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	1	4	13.2	15.9	-2.65	14.8	14.8	-0.00
Markieff Morris	76	76	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.22	1	5	-4	15.2	11.8	3.40	14.7	15.2	-0.49
Sheldon McClellan	29	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	7	-8	12.7	15.1	-2.46	13.6	15.3	-1.73
Jason Smith	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	8	-10	16.4	14.1	2.22	13.1	15.1	-1.98
Trey Burke	24	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	11	-16	14.2	14.5	-0.25	14.5	15.0	-0.48

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	36	40	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-8	10	13.9	15.4	-1.51	13.8	14.8	-1.00
Mirza Teletovic	62	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-5	4	14.6	15.2	-0.55	14.2	14.7	-0.50
John Henson	30	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	3	-12	14.4	15.0	-0.64	15.2	14.0	1.20
Matthew Dellavedova	38	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-7	8	13.6	15.6	-2.07	15.2	13.9	1.24
Michael Beasley	35	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	0	-6	15.6	14.4	1.22	12.9	15.2	-2.27
Greg Monroe	67	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-10	14	15.1	14.2	0.96	14.1	15.1	-1.07
Malcolm Brogdon	72	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-1	-4	14.9	14.6	0.32	14.6	13.8	0.74
Jabari Parker	81	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	-1	-4	14.9	14.4	0.53	14.9	11.8	3.17
Tony Snell	69	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	5	-16	15.5	13.2	2.33	14.3	14.5	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.26,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.14,0.16,0.24,0.08,0	92.5%
MIL 91, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	92.4%
MIA 90, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.26,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0	92.3%