NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	8.3 [232]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +15.4%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	3.6 [439]		LVP	Avery Bradley (DET): -13.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stanley Johnson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.02	0.08	-0.04	10	52%	0.14	0	0.00	7	71%	0.10
Luke Kennard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.05	4	50%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eric Moreland	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	10	46%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Henry Ellenson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,-0.05	0.06	-0.08	0.02	21	59%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.08
Andre Drummond	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.11	6	50%	-0.04
Avery Bradley	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	9	16%	-0.06	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.09	-0.02	8	69%	0.21	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	8	69%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	12	48%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Paul	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.05	-0.02	17	41%	0.11	3	-0.11	7	100%	0.06
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	64%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	9	63%	0.10	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	1.8	29.8	14.5	27.4	1.6	33.4	130.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.8%

SAS +7.4%

SAS +18.8%

DET -17.5%

SAS +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	14.7	97.9	99.0	107.5
season	14.9	15.5		106.4	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		104.1	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.3	13.8	14.7	15.7	14.9
SAS	15.3	16.2	15.3	13.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	60	63	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.25	7	-10	17	14.8	15.0	-0.20	16.2	13.1	3.04
Langston Galloway	18	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	2	-7	14.0	15.1	-1.08	14.5	15.3	-0.77
Avery Bradley	65	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.44	10	-13	23	14.9	14.9	0.01	15.6	14.1	1.56
Anthony Tolliver	47	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-5	7	14.7	15.0	-0.34	15.8	14.4	1.36
Ish Smith	29	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	5	-13	14.3	15.1	-0.81	14.3	15.5	-1.27
Luke Kennard	17	18	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	3	-9	14.2	15.0	-0.85	13.2	15.6	-2.40
Tobias Harris	77	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	1	-5	15.2	13.6	1.63	15.2	14.8	0.42
Reggie Jackson	66	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.45	5	-8	13	15.1	14.3	0.81	15.5	14.3	1.27
Eric Moreland	35	34	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	7	-17	15.0	14.8	0.20	13.1	16.2	-3.04
Stanley Johnson	61	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.39	-6	3	-9	15.1	14.5	0.54	14.7	15.9	-1.15

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	56	54	1.00	-0.50	1.49	0.61	13	-10	23	14.0	16.7	-2.70	14.9	14.8	0.12
Patty Mills	53	53	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.58	14	-11	25	13.2	17.5	-4.27	14.7	15.1	-0.44
LaMarcus Aldridge	69	68	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.39	-1	4	-5	15.8	13.5	2.23	14.9	14.8	0.08
Davis Bertans	32	32	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	-4	11	13.6	15.9	-2.28	14.8	14.9	-0.14
Rudy Gay	62	62	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	5	-7	15.5	14.4	1.09	15.1	14.5	0.64
Brandon Paul	4	4	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	1	1	12.5	15.2	-2.74	11.2	15.0	-3.78
Danny Green	68	67	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.33	-9	12	-21	16.1	12.8	3.28	14.7	15.4	-0.74
Dejounte Murray	18	17	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	-1	5	13.9	15.4	-1.52	15.4	14.8	0.66
Pau Gasol	60	57	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	3	-3	15.4	14.7	0.72	14.9	14.8	0.05
Tony Parker	38	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	6	-9	17.1	13.9	3.17	15.6	14.4	1.14
Bryn Forbes	25	24	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.14	-10	13	-23	16.0	14.8	1.23	14.4	15.0	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.38,0.78,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, CLE 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.44,0.64,0.94,0.95,1	91.6%
DEN 93, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.72,0.97,1,1	91.4%
SAS 84, NJN 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.28,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.99,1	91.2%