NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	7.4 [356]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (CLE): +38.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	95		Comeback	6.4 [365]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -17.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.26	0.11	0.15	0.00	7	78%	0.26	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.01	14	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	10	40%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	22	37%	-0.12	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.39	0.39	0.12	0.26	0.00	14	68%	0.39	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.05	-0.04	12	62%	0.19	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	18	63%	0.23	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.11	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.01
David Wesley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	1.8	29.3	19.6	22.2	2.3	31.0	135.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +50.7%

TOR -3.4%

CLE +19.5%

TOR -17.2%

CLE +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CLE	NBA	TOR	CLE	NBA
this game	15.0	17.3	15.4	102.2	106.7	104.5
season	15.2	16.0		104.7	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.4		99.6	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	15.9	14.9	14.4	15.0
CLE	19.3	15.4	19.4	15.6	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	33	33	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.10	1	-5	6	15.3	14.8	0.49	17.3	17.4	-0.10
Rasho Nesterovic	31	32	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-6	8	15.3	14.9	0.46	19.5	16.1	3.43
Kris Humphries	11	13	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-7	10	15.1	15.0	0.08	12.2	18.2	-5.98
Joey Graham	24	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-3	2	13.9	15.4	-1.51	14.4	18.4	-4.06
Fred Jones	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	1	-6	14.9	15.1	-0.18	15.3	19.1	-3.84
Jorge Garbajosa	55	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-7	10	14.7	15.5	-0.82	18.4	15.6	2.73
Anthony Parker	61	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	1	-6	15.5	14.0	1.54	19.0	13.8	5.21
Andrea Bargnani	56	55	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	2	-8	15.0	15.0	-0.01	16.0	19.5	-3.55
Chris Bosh	76	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	15.1	14.4	0.75	18.2	12.5	5.74
T.J. Ford	56	56	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	1	-6	14.8	15.3	-0.49	17.4	17.3	0.10

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gibson	66	68	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.42	14	-10	24	17.6	16.5	1.16	14.8	15.7	-0.84
Donyell Marshall	51	52	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.39	13	-9	22	17.1	17.6	-0.47	14.7	15.5	-0.89
Damon Jones	53	52	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.36	9	-5	14	16.5	18.5	-2.00	15.7	14.1	1.56
Anderson Varejao	41	40	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	3	-2	14.8	19.5	-4.65	14.7	15.2	-0.49
LeBron James	73	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	2	0	18.2	13.4	4.75	14.9	15.4	-0.48
David Wesley	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	6	-8	25.0	17.2	7.75	8.0	15.2	-7.18
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	48	49	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.12	1	3	-2	18.0	16.6	1.44	15.8	14.1	1.68
Sasha Pavlovic	12	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	9	-14	14.6	17.8	-3.18	15.2	15.0	0.17
Drew Gooden	38	37	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	11	-18	19.5	15.7	3.73	14.8	15.2	-0.32
Eric Snow	62	61	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.10	-6	10	-16	17.1	17.9	-0.74	15.0	15.1	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.44,0.64,0.94,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 111, ORL 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.52,0.36,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.85,0.98,1	92.9%
IND 85, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.79,0.9,0.99,1	92.4%
DET 93, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.38,0.78,0.91,0.96,1	91.6%