NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	4.3 [989]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +15.3%
Boston Celtics	111		Comeback	1.0 [1099]		LVP	John Henson (MIL): -10.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	11	68%	0.11	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.15	-0.02	0.06	24	65%	0.16	4	-0.10	14	86%	0.03
Tony Snell	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.02	8	69%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.01	0.06	9	82%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	13	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.00	0.02	6	106%	0.17	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.03	0.03	10	83%	0.16	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	24	60%	0.14	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.03	-0.04	8	44%	0.06	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.4	27.2	15.4	25.6	2.4	23.5	123.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +44.9%

MIL -6.3%

BOS +13.5%

MIL -4.1%

BOS +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	16.5	14.7	107.5	119.4	107.5
season	14.3	15.1		108.5	106.4
opponent	14.7	15.4		103.5	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	17.4	12.6	14.4	14.5
BOS	16.0	15.4	16.9	17.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thon Maker	15	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	-3	-5	17.5	13.9	3.53	18.1	16.2	1.98
DeAndre Liggins	22	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-5	-1	16.9	13.8	3.15	16.8	16.4	0.49
Tony Snell	77	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-11	11	13.7	18.6	-4.90	16.6	15.8	0.79
John Henson	42	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-3	-5	14.1	14.9	-0.79	15.5	17.3	-1.85
Jason Terry	22	23	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-6	1	18.1	13.4	4.70	17.0	16.3	0.66
Eric Bledsoe	69	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-8	5	13.4	17.6	-4.15	16.1	17.6	-1.47
Khris Middleton	82	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-6	1	14.1	17.2	-3.04	16.2	17.9	-1.67
Malcolm Brogdon	60	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-2	-7	15.2	13.2	2.10	17.2	15.3	1.89
Giannis Antetokounmpo	76	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	0	-11	14.1	16.5	-2.48	16.4	16.9	-0.57

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	67	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.07	21	-10	31	16.5	16.4	0.11	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Terry Rozier	44	42	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-3	17	17.4	15.6	1.75	16.6	12.7	3.90
Jaylen Brown	46	45	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	5	1	17.1	15.9	1.19	13.2	15.7	-2.57
Marcus Smart	56	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	7	-3	16.5	16.4	0.09	15.1	13.5	1.63
Marcus Morris	45	43	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.18	2	9	-7	17.1	15.9	1.26	16.1	13.1	3.04
Jayson Tatum	65	65	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	3	5	16.1	17.2	-1.08	13.5	16.9	-3.42
Aron Baynes	31	33	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	5	1	14.9	17.3	-2.39	12.9	15.4	-2.43
Kyrie Irving	68	68	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	11	-11	15.9	17.9	-1.94	13.4	17.5	-4.07
Semi Ojeleye	25	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.21	-5	16	-21	16.4	16.5	-0.09	16.0	14.0	2.07
Daniel Theis	18	20	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	12	-13	16.8	16.4	0.39	15.8	14.2	1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.82,0.79,0.89,0.87,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 112, TOR 123	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.85,0.92,0.84,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
PHI 87, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	95.1%
POR 85, SAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%