NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	5.7 [712]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +17.0%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	2.8 [778]		LVP	Justin Holiday (CHI): -22.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robin Lopez	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	17	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lauri Markkanen	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.04	18	58%	0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
David Nwaba	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Denzel Valentine	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.02	0.09	5	58%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Zipser	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	15	34%	-0.05	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.04	0.10	15	28%	-0.22	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.01	12	63%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	4	89%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	17	51%	0.12	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	11	59%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	7	47%	-0.01	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Okaro White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	21%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.06	0.03	12	50%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	25.6	14.6	23.4	2.3	34.5	125.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.0%

MIA +7.4%

CHI -6.7%

MIA +7.6%

MIA +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	14.7	14.7	90.1	95.1	107.5
season	14.2	15.1		103.2	105.4
opponent	14.6	15.0		105.8	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	12.2	13.5	13.1	13.7
MIA	14.3	15.0	15.3	14.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lauri Markkanen	74	73	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.10	7	-13	20	13.6	14.0	-0.42	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Jerian Grant	56	55	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-8	10	13.5	13.9	-0.43	14.3	15.1	-0.80
Robin Lopez	72	73	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-10	14	13.5	14.2	-0.77	14.6	14.8	-0.16
David Nwaba	60	60	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-6	6	14.3	12.7	1.62	15.6	13.4	2.20
Quincy Pondexter	13	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-4	2	12.8	13.8	-0.97	15.1	14.6	0.46
Justin Holiday	80	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-6	6	13.5	14.5	-0.99	14.2	16.4	-2.15
Cristiano Felicio	26	27	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.17	-13	7	-20	14.3	13.5	0.78	15.0	14.6	0.39
Paul Zipser	30	31	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	4	-14	14.0	13.6	0.44	14.8	14.6	0.23
Denzel Valentine	32	33	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	5	-16	14.5	13.3	1.14	15.4	14.3	1.11
Kris Dunn	62	64	-0.68	0.17	-0.85	-0.47	-7	1	-8	13.3	14.4	-1.08	14.2	15.4	-1.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	53	52	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.46	6	0	6	14.3	15.1	-0.82	13.0	14.4	-1.43
Wayne Ellington	49	48	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-1	8	15.3	14.1	1.29	13.2	14.1	-0.88
Bam Adebayo	30	28	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-2	10	13.5	15.2	-1.67	13.4	13.8	-0.37
Tyler Johnson	71	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	2	2	14.0	16.3	-2.36	13.1	14.8	-1.70
Goran Dragic	71	71	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.20	8	-2	10	14.7	14.6	0.14	13.8	13.4	0.37
Kelly Olynyk	18	19	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	5	-4	14.2	14.8	-0.55	12.6	13.9	-1.31
Josh Richardson	46	47	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.12	6	0	6	15.1	14.4	0.71	14.6	12.9	1.77
Dion Waiters	69	70	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	13	-20	14.6	14.8	-0.12	13.8	13.4	0.39
Okaro White	49	49	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.13	0	6	-6	15.1	14.3	0.82	14.4	13.0	1.43
Hassan Whiteside	54	54	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	9	-12	15.5	13.8	1.71	14.2	13.1	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.44,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 82, SEA 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.88,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%
SAC 99, MIA 119	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.6%
SAS 89, DAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%