NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	112		Excitement	8.5 [202]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +42.0%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	20.1 [141]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -15.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.05	0.00	12	83%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	11	55%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.05,-0.06,0,0.15,0.15,0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	18	56%	0.10	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.05
Delon Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	6	47%	0.08	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Fred VanVleet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	12	54%	0.03	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	18	36%	-0.11	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.42	0.42	0.12	0.32	0.01	20	62%	0.47	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.07
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.13	0.18	0.00	20	63%	0.36	1	-0.06	6	67%	-0.07
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.02	-0.01	15	73%	0.17	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	7	75%	0.16	6	-0.18	6	100%	0.05
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	1.5	27.3	14.5	24.6	1.6	35.8	133.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +97.7%

TOR -15.3%

TOR -32.0%

TOR -4.3%

GSW +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	12.7	14.7	112.0	113.6	107.5
season	14.6	13.7		112.7	112.6
opponent	15.1	14.8		105.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	14.3	15.8	17.6	15.7
GSW	12.8	11.9	12.5	13.7	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
OG Anunoby	35	35	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.06	8	-13	21	16.3	15.4	0.91	15.4	11.3	4.05
Norman Powell	33	35	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-8	11	16.4	15.4	1.05	13.4	12.4	1.02
Fred VanVleet	10	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-4	3	13.8	15.9	-2.13	16.4	12.3	4.10
Pascal Siakam	47	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-2	-1	14.4	16.8	-2.40	11.8	13.6	-1.81
CJ Miles	36	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	0	-5	15.8	15.7	0.13	14.1	11.9	2.11
Jakob Poeltl	52	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-3	1	16.0	15.4	0.62	13.6	11.8	1.82
DeMar DeRozan	82	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	3	-11	15.9	15.1	0.74	11.5	17.8	-6.24
Kyle Lowry	81	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	0	-5	15.5	16.8	-1.39	12.4	13.9	-1.53
Serge Ibaka	61	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	1	-7	16.1	15.1	1.01	11.6	14.4	-2.86
Delon Wright	63	62	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	1	-7	15.8	15.6	0.11	12.4	13.1	-0.70

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	82	80	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.34	14	-9	23	11.5	17.2	-5.64	15.8	15.3	0.53
Draymond Green	80	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-6	17	11.6	16.4	-4.75	15.7	16.0	-0.29
Kevin Durant	84	80	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-2	9	12.3	14.3	-1.92	15.7	15.8	-0.16
Klay Thompson	85	82	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	3	-1	12.5	13.6	-1.11	15.4	17.3	-1.90
Andre Iguodala	64	63	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.47	-4	9	-13	13.4	11.5	1.95	15.5	16.1	-0.62
Patrick McCaw	18	18	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	2	1	13.6	12.5	1.11	17.3	15.4	1.90
Jordan Bell	18	18	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	2	1	13.6	12.5	1.11	17.3	15.4	1.90
David West	19	18	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	10	-15	17.6	11.6	6.05	15.8	15.7	0.07
Zaza Pachulia	34	32	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	8	-11	12.2	13.0	-0.78	14.7	16.2	-1.52
Shaun Livingston	31	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	8	-11	14.9	11.7	3.20	16.3	15.5	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.88,0.77,0.73,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.21,0.1,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.27,1	89.9%
DAL 106, NOP 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.46,0.45,0.29,0.16,0.42,1	89.8%
SAS 92, MEM 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.48,0.65,0.8,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.32,0.16,0.09,0.09,1	89.8%