NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	4.9 [838]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): +15.0%
Dallas Mavericks	86		Comeback	1.0 [781]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (DAL): -22.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.05	-0.03	16	56%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.16	0.02	0.03	6	117%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	17	50%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Norman Powell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.01	-0.00	17	56%	0.09	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	60%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Salah Mejri	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	41%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.02	5	64%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	0.10	10	52%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.20	-0.04	-0.02	12	15%	-0.16	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.5	30.4	15.4	27.1	1.8	32.3	133.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +60.0%

DAL -9.9%

TOR +4.4%

DAL -5.9%

TOR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DAL	NBA	TOR	DAL	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	14.8	105.6	97.7	107.7
season	15.2	16.2		110.0	104.4
opponent	14.7	14.9		107.2	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.6	17.0	16.1	17.8	17.1
DAL	17.5	14.3	15.9	14.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	54	54	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	-1	10	18.6	14.7	3.96	17.0	12.9	4.08
Cory Joseph	62	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	1	6	18.4	14.0	4.44	16.5	13.1	3.36
PJ Tucker	65	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	0	8	16.8	17.7	-0.90	15.1	16.2	-1.11
DeMar DeRozan	65	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	5	-2	17.6	15.7	1.89	15.8	14.4	1.42
Delon Wright	44	44	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	1	6	16.7	17.5	-0.81	15.8	15.0	0.80
Patrick Patterson	49	47	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	6	-4	16.2	18.1	-1.93	13.5	17.6	-4.10
Jakob Poeltl	34	34	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	1	6	16.3	17.6	-1.29	15.4	15.5	-0.15
Jonas Valanciunas	41	41	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	10	-12	16.7	17.4	-0.66	15.6	15.3	0.36
Norman Powell	31	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	9	-10	14.4	18.5	-4.10	12.6	16.9	-4.31

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yogi Ferrell	33	35	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.34	14	-22	36	13.2	16.8	-3.67	17.8	16.6	1.17
Devin Harris	37	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-11	14	13.7	16.7	-3.00	15.9	18.0	-2.10
Dwight Powell	8	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-3	-2	13.6	15.6	-2.00	14.0	17.4	-3.35
Nerlens Noel	45	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-7	6	16.4	14.5	1.87	17.7	16.5	1.17
Dorian Finney-Smith	25	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-1	-6	14.4	15.9	-1.46	15.3	17.8	-2.46
J.J. Barea	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-4	0	16.3	14.9	1.38	17.2	17.0	0.15
Salah Mejri	28	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-4	0	15.9	15.2	0.71	15.4	17.9	-2.42
Dirk Nowitzki	56	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	7	-22	14.4	17.3	-2.89	16.6	18.0	-1.47
Wesley Matthews	60	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-2	-4	16.0	14.2	1.75	17.4	16.4	1.02
Harrison Barnes	64	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-4	0	16.4	13.0	3.36	18.1	14.1	4.05
Seth Curry	51	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	3	-14	16.7	13.7	3.00	18.0	15.9	2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 114, CLE 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.07,0,0,0	94.3%
TOR 99, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.01,0,0	94.1%
LAL 106, SAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.03,0	94.1%