NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	5.1 [813]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +25.3%
Miami Heat	123		Comeback	1.0 [1049]		LVP	Gorgui Dieng (MIN): -9.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.02	-0.01	17	74%	0.28	3	-0.10	8	100%	0.05
Ricky Rubio	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.04	-0.05	14	62%	0.18	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Shabazz Muhammad	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	10	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tyus Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.03	6	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	23	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Kris Dunn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gorgui Dieng	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	7	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.08	0.00	11	92%	0.28	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.05	-0.02	13	79%	0.28	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	12	71%	0.13	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	16	51%	0.15	3	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	27.3	14.8	25.5	1.7	34.3	128.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +45.3%

MIN -12.8%

MIA +21.7%

MIN -4.7%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	14.8	112.9	130.9	107.7
season	15.3	15.4		109.3	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		105.9	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.3	17.0	13.2	13.4	15.0
MIA	13.2	16.4	16.8	17.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	11.0	15.0	-4.01	30.5	15.5	14.99
Cole Aldrich	19	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-19	20	12.6	15.6	-2.94	14.6	16.2	-1.56
Ricky Rubio	63	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	-11	4	15.3	14.2	1.08	16.0	15.6	0.40
Kris Dunn	27	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-11	4	14.6	15.1	-0.58	15.3	16.0	-0.70
Gorgui Dieng	54	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	-9	0	15.7	13.9	1.80	15.4	16.4	-0.95
Tyus Jones	28	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-9	0	14.4	15.2	-0.82	15.6	15.9	-0.37
Brandon Rush	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.12	-14	-4	-10	15.0	14.7	0.31	15.5	16.9	-1.40
Karl-Anthony Towns	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	1	-20	15.6	12.6	2.94	16.2	14.6	1.56
Andrew Wiggins	76	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	-5	-8	14.8	15.8	-1.05	15.6	16.7	-1.07
Shabazz Muhammad	52	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	-5	-8	14.5	15.5	-0.97	16.7	14.7	1.97

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	62	61	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.09	25	-7	32	16.0	15.5	0.55	14.5	15.9	-1.43
James Johnson	56	56	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.12	25	-7	32	14.7	17.6	-2.89	14.4	15.8	-1.36
Tyler Johnson	64	62	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.02	20	-2	22	15.5	16.6	-1.08	14.5	16.0	-1.50
Hassan Whiteside	64	66	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	2	14	15.9	15.8	0.09	14.7	15.7	-1.04
Goran Dragic	65	65	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.10	14	4	10	16.0	15.4	0.60	14.4	16.3	-1.94
Willie Reed	30	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	16	-14	15.8	15.9	-0.09	15.6	14.7	0.97
Dion Waiters	24	23	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	11	-4	13.6	16.6	-2.96	16.4	14.5	1.95
Okaro White	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	30.5	15.5	14.99	11.0	15.0	-4.01
Rodney McGruder	37	37	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	16.4	15.5	0.90	15.5	14.6	0.95
Luke Babbitt	34	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	24	-30	16.5	15.5	1.00	16.3	14.2	2.04
Wayne Ellington	32	32	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.11	-10	28	-38	17.2	15.1	2.15	16.1	14.4	1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, OKC 119	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1	94.7%
MIA 91, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.99,1	94.4%
IND 100, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%