NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	3.7 [1061]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +12.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	88		Comeback	1.0 [576]		LVP	Luke Babbitt (MIA): -6.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	0.01	12	77%	0.18	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Okaro White	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.09	13	55%	0.11	5	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	0.01	0.08	11	77%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.01	0.06	12	69%	0.08	3	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	13	38%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	6	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Parker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	11	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	46%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.00	2	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.07	15	69%	0.07	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	34.5	14.8	25.3	2.6	27.4	132.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.7%

MIL -0.4%

MIA +17.0%

MIL -4.4%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	17.9	13.0	14.8	114.0	94.6	107.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.7	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.5		107.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	17.1	19.0	19.4	17.9
MIL	12.7	11.7	14.6	13.3	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	53	53	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.19	24	-6	30	17.9	17.9	0.02	13.8	12.0	1.86
Rodney McGruder	68	69	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.07	17	1	16	18.3	17.0	1.33	12.7	14.1	-1.47
Hassan Whiteside	68	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.11	16	2	14	17.5	19.2	-1.67	13.4	12.1	1.33
James Johnson	60	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	3	12	17.7	18.4	-0.71	12.1	14.7	-2.68
Goran Dragic	68	69	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	7	4	17.2	20.0	-2.77	13.1	12.7	0.38
Luke Babbitt	37	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	11	-4	18.4	17.6	0.74	14.4	12.2	2.19
Tyler Johnson	54	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	20	-22	18.6	17.0	1.66	12.6	13.6	-0.99
Willie Reed	25	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	16	-14	19.2	17.5	1.67	12.1	13.4	-1.33
Okaro White	32	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	18	-18	17.5	18.1	-0.62	13.3	12.9	0.42

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mirza Teletovic	25	25	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-22	26	13.2	13.0	0.23	17.7	18.0	-0.35
Jason Terry	28	29	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-20	22	13.3	12.9	0.41	16.5	18.6	-2.06
Michael Beasley	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-18	18	13.3	12.9	0.37	19.4	17.5	1.93
Malcolm Brogdon	61	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-19	20	12.8	13.4	-0.62	18.7	16.4	2.27
Greg Monroe	43	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-14	10	12.1	13.9	-1.79	18.0	17.9	0.03
Khris Middleton	27	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	-7	-4	13.7	12.7	1.00	18.4	17.7	0.72
John Henson	50	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.13	-14	-4	-10	13.9	12.1	1.79	18.0	17.8	0.23
Jabari Parker	40	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-7	-4	13.4	12.8	0.60	16.9	18.7	-1.77
Matthew Dellavedova	32	31	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.20	-19	1	-20	13.4	12.8	0.62	16.4	18.7	-2.27
Giannis Antetokounmpo	72	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.12	-18	0	-18	12.4	15.1	-2.66	17.9	18.2	-0.32
Tony Snell	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.09	-20	2	-22	12.9	13.3	-0.41	18.6	16.5	2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 109, NYK 101	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0	95.7%
ORL 107, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
HOU 128, DEN 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%