NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	3.4 [1069]		MVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): +5.0%
Boston Celtics	96		Comeback	1.0 [1031]		LVP	Walter McCarty (BOS): -14.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	63%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	20	71%	0.14	8	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Derek Harper	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	12	73%	0.08	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	8	76%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.01	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Rony Seikaly	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.15	0.00	-0.11	6	29%	-0.03	5	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	6	92%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	0.01	0.08	14	70%	0.03	1	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Pervis Ellison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	8	65%	0.01	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Dontae' Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	8	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	55%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.05	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	20	43%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.15	-0.00	-0.04	9	10%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.00	-0.00	11	31%	-0.08	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.7	23.5	15.0	30.2	1.4	25.4	128.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.4%

ORL +8.2%

BOS -8.2%

BOS -4.9%

ORL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.7	15.5	15.6	112.6	100.0	102.5
season	16.7	15.1		100.3	100.2
opponent	15.1	15.6		103.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.3	15.0	15.4	17.1	14.7
BOS	17.5	18.4	14.0	12.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	74	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	1	9	14.8	14.3	0.53	15.4	15.5	-0.08
Derek Strong	52	54	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.26	24	-13	37	13.4	16.3	-2.89	16.2	14.5	1.66
Mark Price	39	39	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	5	1	12.1	16.5	-4.48	13.4	16.8	-3.41
Darrell Armstrong	39	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	4	3	14.5	14.8	-0.35	15.5	15.4	0.16
Horace Grant	55	54	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.44	-5	16	-21	16.4	12.3	4.09	15.6	15.2	0.39
Nick Anderson	56	57	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.20	15	-4	19	14.7	14.7	-0.08	16.1	14.5	1.59
Bo Outlaw	51	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	8	-5	14.2	15.3	-1.16	13.6	17.6	-3.98
Derek Harper	69	69	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	15	-19	16.4	10.2	6.20	15.6	15.1	0.53
Rony Seikaly	32	32	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	11	-11	14.7	14.7	0.04	16.9	14.7	2.17
Gerald Wilkins	8	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	12	-13	13.1	14.8	-1.71	19.1	15.1	4.00

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	13	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-18	25	8.7	16.5	-7.83	12.9	15.0	-2.07
Dontae' Jones	21	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-14	17	17.1	15.0	2.16	13.3	15.1	-1.79
Andrew DeClercq	43	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-15	19	15.0	15.9	-0.91	14.7	14.7	-0.01
Ron Mercer	53	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.35	8	-19	27	15.3	15.7	-0.43	16.8	12.1	4.66
Pervis Ellison	8	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	-4	-3	15.2	15.5	-0.23	5.3	15.4	-10.16
Chauncey Billups	48	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.06	-9	-2	-7	16.8	14.1	2.67	13.1	16.1	-3.05
Bruce Bowen	26	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-5	-1	14.2	15.9	-1.68	14.3	14.9	-0.59
Travis Knight	45	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-3	-5	16.0	15.0	0.98	16.1	13.3	2.78
Walter McCarty	73	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-2	-7	15.9	14.2	1.69	15.3	12.9	2.41
Dee Brown	41	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.12	-15	4	-19	15.5	15.4	0.14	11.8	16.9	-5.17
Dana Barros	52	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-7	3	14.5	16.6	-2.13	15.9	13.1	2.82
Antoine Walker	57	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.19	-19	8	-27	16.3	14.2	2.11	15.4	13.7	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 107, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
CHH 100, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
SAS 84, NOK 68	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%