NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	9.6 [92]		MVP	Lou Williams (LAL): +41.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	120		Comeback	5.4 [192]		LVP	Luol Deng (LAL): -14.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Hernangomez	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	2	133%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Wilson Chandler	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19	0.14	0.04	-0.00	20	62%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.01	12	55%	0.18	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
Gary Harris	0.12	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.23,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	11	71%	0.24	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	12	58%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	12	47%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Darrell Arthur	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.03	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	7	6%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.11,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	15	30%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.18	0.24	0.00	11	84%	0.45	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.14	0.18	0.00	9	89%	0.36	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.17	0.15	0.01	15	74%	0.35	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.12	-0.00	17	52%	0.21	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.04
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	5	86%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	55%	0.02	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	9	39%	0.06	3	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.3	15.5	26.4	2.3	32.6	130.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +69.9%

LAL +0.4%

LAL +1.2%

DEN -25.8%

LAL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.3	14.5	14.8	116.0	120.0	107.7
season	14.4	14.5		111.6	104.8
opponent	14.4	14.5		111.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	14.7	14.5	14.9	14.3
LAL	15.8	13.6	15.5	13.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Hernangomez	27	27	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.20	6	-10	16	15.3	13.9	1.38	13.6	14.8	-1.26
Darrell Arthur	40	41	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.11	7	-11	18	14.9	13.9	1.02	14.6	14.5	0.13
Jamal Murray	55	56	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.04	9	-13	22	15.0	13.4	1.62	14.4	14.7	-0.35
Wilson Chandler	74	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.44	9	-13	22	14.3	14.2	0.13	14.4	14.8	-0.40
Jusuf Nurkic	26	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	9	-22	14.2	14.3	-0.13	14.8	14.4	0.40
Gary Harris	70	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	1	-6	13.8	15.4	-1.54	14.2	15.1	-0.89
Kenneth Faried	60	59	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.49	-11	7	-18	13.9	14.9	-1.02	14.5	14.6	-0.13
Danilo Gallinari	73	73	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.59	-10	6	-16	13.9	15.3	-1.38	14.8	13.6	1.26
Jameer Nelson	75	74	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.55	-12	8	-20	14.2	14.6	-0.41	14.9	13.5	1.42

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Young	62	62	1.17	-0.67	1.83	0.49	23	-19	42	14.4	14.7	-0.28	14.2	14.5	-0.34
Luol Deng	64	64	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.54	19	-15	34	14.7	14.1	0.62	14.0	14.9	-0.89
D'Angelo Russell	70	70	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.55	11	-7	18	14.9	13.6	1.25	14.1	14.8	-0.73
Timofey Mozgov	46	46	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.00	13	-9	22	14.9	14.2	0.71	14.1	14.4	-0.34
Lou Williams	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	3	-2	13.7	15.3	-1.66	15.3	13.3	2.02
Ivica Zubac	46	44	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.33	-5	9	-14	14.1	14.9	-0.82	14.5	14.1	0.42
Tarik Black	37	37	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	0	4	15.0	14.2	0.78	13.9	14.5	-0.55
Brandon Ingram	43	44	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.01	-12	16	-28	14.2	14.8	-0.61	14.2	14.3	-0.07
Jordan Clarkson	45	46	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	-0.10	-15	19	-34	14.3	14.7	-0.32	14.3	14.3	0.07
Larry Nance Jr.	37	37	-0.67	1.17	-1.83	-0.11	-19	23	-42	14.9	14.3	0.65	14.4	14.2	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.7,0.62,0.46,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.33,0.68,0.36,0.55,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 82, IND 86	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.4,0.33,0.53,0.63,0.77,0.91,1	89.6%
NYK 93, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.43,0.27,0.36,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	88.9%
DET 115, ATL 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.33,0.23,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.38,0.21,0.32,0.83,1	88.6%