NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	4.9 [847]		MVP	Dejounte Murray (SAS): +21.5%
San Antonio Spurs	118		Comeback	1.4 [1214]		LVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): -7.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.19	-0.02	0.06	22	71%	0.19	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Will Barton	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	12	58%	0.12	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.07
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	10	55%	0.10	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.05	15	39%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05
Kenneth Faried	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.20	0.03	0.01	11	83%	0.24	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.18	0.02	0.03	22	65%	0.19	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.04
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	11	61%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	9	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	5	64%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	9	35%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	31.2	15.4	29.6	2.4	30.3	133.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.2%

DEN -6.4%

DEN -6.1%

SAS +18.3%

DEN -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.1	14.8	107.2	120.4	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		111.6	110.1
opponent	14.8	14.5		103.7	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.6	13.9	13.5	16.0	14.4
SAS	14.8	14.3	13.7	18.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	31	30	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-18	22	12.8	15.2	-2.34	14.1	15.6	-1.49
Jameer Nelson	59	57	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-19	24	13.6	15.7	-2.06	14.4	16.0	-1.63
Mike Miller	23	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-18	22	14.4	14.4	-0.05	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Jamal Murray	51	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-16	18	14.8	14.0	0.86	15.3	14.9	0.40
Juan Hernangomez	76	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	2	-18	15.1	12.0	3.04	15.5	13.7	1.77
Emmanuel Mudiay	49	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.07	-18	4	-22	14.4	14.4	0.03	15.8	14.3	1.42
Will Barton	73	74	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.03	-16	2	-18	13.6	16.9	-3.30	15.2	14.9	0.25
Nikola Jokic	74	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.02	-17	3	-20	14.6	13.9	0.74	15.6	13.6	1.95
Kenneth Faried	49	50	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	4	-22	15.9	12.9	3.00	14.3	16.0	-1.68

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	64	65	0.81	-0.31	1.11	-0.07	30	-16	46	15.1	15.0	0.11	15.7	11.9	3.77
Dejounte Murray	68	66	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.01	23	-9	32	15.6	14.1	1.49	15.4	12.3	3.10
Kawhi Leonard	72	71	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-2	18	15.4	14.2	1.29	15.0	12.9	2.06
Manu Ginobili	43	44	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.11	16	-2	18	14.0	16.0	-1.96	14.2	14.6	-0.42
LaMarcus Aldridge	60	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	6	2	15.1	15.1	0.08	14.4	14.5	-0.05
Danny Green	43	43	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	11	-8	15.9	14.5	1.48	15.6	13.5	2.02
Kyle Anderson	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	11	-8	12.0	15.2	-3.17	13.0	14.4	-1.45
Dewayne Dedmon	38	39	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	18	-22	15.4	14.9	0.48	13.6	15.0	-1.37
Davis Bertans	34	32	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	20	-26	14.6	15.3	-0.70	12.9	15.2	-2.23
Patty Mills	34	35	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.19	-12	26	-38	15.1	15.1	-0.07	12.6	15.5	-2.87
Jonathon Simmons	32	31	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	21	-28	14.0	15.7	-1.68	11.9	15.6	-3.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.66,0.77,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.76,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 79, PHX 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.9%
NJN 98, DAL 122	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.82,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
IND 88, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%