NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	112		Excitement	3.6 [1080]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +16.3%
Denver Nuggets	125		Comeback	1.1 [1088]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): -6.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	8	78%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	54%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	12	62%	0.07	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.02	0.06	13	63%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	9	68%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01
Damjan Rudez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.01	0.05	17	54%	-0.03	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.05	0.05	19	70%	0.21	2	-0.04	5	60%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.01	0.06	12	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.01	0.06	10	82%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	12	64%	0.10	4	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	-0.03	11	58%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	61%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	12	37%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	25.2	15.6	21.5	2.7	32.0	124.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.3%

ORL -1.9%

DEN +9.0%

DEN +0.6%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	14.5	14.8	107.7	122.5	107.7
season	14.6	14.4		103.0	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		111.2	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.6	12.6	15.8	11.3	13.5
DEN	13.6	14.6	14.9	14.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	34	36	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.23	10	-23	33	13.6	13.5	0.13	15.5	13.9	1.59
CJ Watson	30	31	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.12	6	-19	25	13.5	13.5	-0.00	14.5	14.5	0.02
Mario Hezonja	41	42	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-16	19	13.9	13.3	0.62	15.9	13.4	2.48
D.J. Augustin	38	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-14	15	14.3	13.1	1.20	15.8	13.6	2.19
Evan Fournier	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-15	17	0.0	13.5	-13.50	16.0	14.5	1.54
Damjan Rudez	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	1.0	13.6	-12.62	24.0	14.4	9.62
Bismack Biyombo	42	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-12	11	14.0	13.2	0.76	14.9	14.2	0.74
Nikola Vucevic	61	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-1	-11	13.4	13.7	-0.26	14.0	15.1	-1.12
Elfrid Payton	66	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	1	-15	13.1	14.3	-1.20	13.6	15.8	-2.19
Aaron Gordon	64	61	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.06	-16	3	-19	13.1	14.2	-1.14	13.6	15.7	-2.11
Jodie Meeks	74	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.06	-21	8	-29	13.5	13.5	0.00	14.4	14.5	-0.09
Serge Ibaka	69	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.11	-23	10	-33	13.6	13.2	0.41	13.8	15.7	-1.98

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emmanuel Mudiay	80	83	0.67	-0.17	0.85	-0.03	24	-11	35	13.9	16.5	-2.65	13.3	14.4	-1.16
Kenneth Faried	73	74	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.06	22	-9	31	14.3	15.0	-0.74	13.1	14.4	-1.22
Nikola Jokic	76	80	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.04	18	-5	23	13.8	16.5	-2.72	13.7	12.8	0.92
Danilo Gallinari	84	88	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-2	17	14.1	16.1	-1.92	13.6	13.0	0.59
Jameer Nelson	68	69	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	-2	17	14.7	14.0	0.66	13.6	13.3	0.28
Juan Hernangomez	9	7	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	12	-11	13.3	14.6	-1.25	12.1	13.6	-1.46
Gary Harris	6	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	13	-13	13.2	14.6	-1.39	13.9	13.5	0.41
Jamal Murray	9	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	16	-19	18.8	14.1	4.72	13.7	13.5	0.18
Wilson Chandler	42	41	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.23	-10	23	-33	15.3	13.9	1.35	14.0	13.2	0.79
Jusuf Nurkic	13	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	17	-21	17.2	14.1	3.08	12.7	13.6	-0.92
Will Barton	50	48	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.25	-13	26	-39	15.2	13.7	1.51	13.7	13.3	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 74, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.8%
DET 89, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
BOS 94, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%