NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	3.7 [1053]		MVP	JJ Redick (LAC): +15.5%
LA Clippers	98		Comeback	1.1 [1192]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (LAC): -12.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.04	12	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
James Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Willie Reed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	18	59%	0.05	5	-0.10	5	80%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Derrick Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.03	-0.03	19	60%	0.16	1	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.00	-0.01	11	70%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.17	-0.00	0.10	8	95%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.08	11	32%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.06
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	10%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.19	-0.00	-0.07	12	8%	-0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.0	31.3	15.5	32.3	2.3	26.7	133.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +41.5%

MIA -9.0%

LAC +3.3%

LAC +12.6%

LAC +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	14.5	14.7	14.8	87.8	99.0	107.7
season	15.4	15.0		106.7	110.8
opponent	14.8	14.5		106.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	14.8	14.7	13.8	14.5
LAC	14.8	11.4	15.3	18.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	40	36	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-14	16	12.9	15.6	-2.64	13.5	15.4	-1.93
Tyler Johnson	65	68	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.59	18	-30	48	13.7	16.1	-2.43	15.2	13.8	1.39
Dion Waiters	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-8	4	13.9	14.8	-0.91	13.2	15.5	-2.32
James Johnson	57	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-12	12	13.9	15.4	-1.55	13.7	16.2	-2.50
Wayne Ellington	42	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.25	-17	5	-22	14.7	14.4	0.32	15.4	14.3	1.17
Derrick Williams	41	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	0	-12	15.4	13.9	1.55	16.2	13.7	2.50
Goran Dragic	84	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.10	-14	2	-16	15.0	11.9	3.10	14.9	13.9	1.01
Rodney McGruder	70	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	7	-26	14.9	13.5	1.41	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Hassan Whiteside	58	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.10	-14	2	-16	15.6	12.9	2.64	15.4	13.5	1.93

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	62	61	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.13	23	-11	34	14.0	16.0	-2.08	14.4	14.6	-0.18
JJ Redick	70	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	-5	22	13.9	16.8	-2.92	15.3	12.7	2.61
Luc Mbah a Moute	56	55	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.05	9	3	6	14.2	15.4	-1.22	15.7	13.0	2.73
DeAndre Jordan	66	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	12	-12	15.5	13.2	2.27	15.5	12.6	2.92
Raymond Felton	72	72	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	4	4	15.4	12.9	2.53	15.3	12.3	3.05
Jamal Crawford	66	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	12	-12	14.6	15.0	-0.45	13.7	16.2	-2.54
Marreese Speights	33	33	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.15	12	0	12	13.2	15.5	-2.27	12.6	15.5	-2.92
Brandon Bass	43	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	9	-6	15.4	14.2	1.22	13.0	15.7	-2.73
Wesley Johnson	27	27	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.36	-12	24	-36	17.3	13.8	3.48	12.5	15.3	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 58, CLE 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
POR 93, SEA 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
GSW 75, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%