NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	121		Excitement	8.5 [210]		MVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): +100.6%
Sacramento Kings	126		Comeback	8.8 [169]		LVP	Matt Barnes (SAC): -9.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0.42	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.42	0.17	0.26	0.01	13	73%	0.48	1	-0.05	11	64%	-0.05
CJ McCollum	0.12	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.12	0.17	-0.02	0.03	22	67%	0.18	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.04
Ed Davis	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	52%	0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Allen Crabbe	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Noah Vonleh	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,-0.09	0.04	-0.15	-0.02	20	46%	-0.09	0	0.00	12	92%	0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.77,1.01	1.01	0.32	0.71	0.02	28	75%	1.14	5	-0.13	17	94%	0.10
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.08	0.01	8	80%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	5	92%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	4	73%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	48%	-0.00	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.09	0.00	7	65%	0.07	2	-0.15	3	67%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	17%	-0.08	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	38.5	14.8	29.9	2.6	37.8	151.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +78.8%

SAC +6.0%

POR -31.2%

POR -8.0%

SAC +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAC	NBA	POR	SAC	NBA
this game	14.7	14.6	14.8	122.2	128.6	107.7
season	14.9	15.4		108.6	106.0
opponent	14.6	14.5		110.0	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.3	13.2	14.4	14.9	14.7
SAC	13.7	16.3	14.4	13.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Meyers Leonard	37	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-2	-1	16.8	13.4	3.34	13.7	15.2	-1.50
Ed Davis	37	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-5	5	15.4	14.2	1.18	16.2	13.6	2.60
Shabazz Napier	38	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.07	-10	5	-15	14.4	14.8	-0.40	13.5	15.2	-1.71
Allen Crabbe	75	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.20	-1	-4	3	14.2	16.2	-2.09	14.7	14.1	0.62
Noah Vonleh	23	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.07	-12	7	-19	15.7	14.4	1.28	12.5	15.2	-2.74
Damian Lillard	81	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.42	3	-8	11	14.5	15.4	-0.88	14.0	16.9	-2.88
Mason Plumlee	76	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-4	3	14.1	16.5	-2.42	15.1	13.0	2.05
CJ McCollum	77	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-5	5	14.8	14.1	0.74	15.7	10.5	5.25
Maurice Harkless	51	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-4	3	13.9	15.4	-1.50	14.0	15.2	-1.23

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	51	51	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.39	14	-9	23	14.0	15.2	-1.27	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Ty Lawson	62	61	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.30	17	-12	29	14.1	15.4	-1.38	14.2	15.4	-1.22
Arron Afflalo	65	65	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.34	13	-8	21	14.2	15.3	-1.06	14.1	15.8	-1.76
Anthony Tolliver	69	70	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-7	19	14.4	14.9	-0.46	14.5	15.1	-0.57
DeMarcus Cousins	83	84	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.30	3	2	1	14.2	16.4	-2.16	14.7	14.5	0.16
Kosta Koufos	27	28	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	7	-9	14.5	14.6	-0.12	15.7	14.3	1.46
Willie Cauley-Stein	14	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	6	-7	17.0	14.2	2.83	13.5	14.8	-1.39
Ben McLemore	43	43	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	12	-19	15.2	14.1	1.10	15.0	14.4	0.59
Matt Barnes	36	37	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	15	-25	15.4	14.1	1.25	15.6	14.1	1.52
Darren Collison	40	43	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.04	-14	19	-33	15.5	13.9	1.53	15.2	14.3	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.47,0.69,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.37,0.33,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, MIN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.57,0.73,1	90.5%
PHI 92, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.46,0.35,0.73,1	89.7%
IND 105, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.27,0.41,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.85,1	89.6%