NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	4.4 [932]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): +18.2%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.2 [999]		LVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): -17.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	15	72%	0.20	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Avery Bradley	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.00	-0.04	17	59%	0.12	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	15	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	10	58%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	90%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.08	0.06	-0.06	5	29%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	8	33%	-0.06	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.01	-0.02	13	66%	0.09	3	0.00	9	56%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	21	67%	0.15	5	-0.09	4	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	87%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	87%	0.07	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01	5	-0.09	8	50%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.04	0.01	7	31%	-0.06	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.8	14.8	29.1	2.4	45.5	145.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +2.0%

BOS +21.0%

BOS +1.6%

BOS +22.8%

BOS +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	13.5	14.8	107.1	95.0	107.7
season	14.7	15.4		110.1	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.0	15.5	14.6	16.4	15.6
MIA	16.0	14.0	11.7	12.9	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Thomas	54	56	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	-2	14	15.5	15.7	-0.22	14.9	11.8	3.14
Terry Rozier	36	37	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	0	10	16.7	14.9	1.76	13.6	13.5	0.15
Avery Bradley	70	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	0	10	15.1	16.8	-1.74	13.1	14.6	-1.55
Marcus Smart	58	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	9	-8	15.9	15.1	0.81	12.4	15.0	-2.62
Al Horford	62	64	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	6	-2	15.4	16.0	-0.62	13.9	12.8	1.13
Jae Crowder	73	75	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	3	4	14.9	17.6	-2.76	12.8	15.6	-2.81
Jonas Jerebko	48	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.35	-6	16	-22	16.3	14.9	1.35	12.7	14.3	-1.64
Kelly Olynyk	26	28	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	6	-2	15.9	15.5	0.46	12.4	14.0	-1.58
Amir Johnson	39	41	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	6	-2	14.7	16.2	-1.43	15.4	12.2	3.24
Tyler Zeller	9	7	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	6	-2	17.8	15.4	2.42	13.9	13.5	0.35
Jaylen Brown	15	15	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	10	-10	16.8	15.4	1.44	15.7	13.1	2.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	10	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-6	2	13.7	13.5	0.19	17.4	15.4	1.95
Josh McRoberts	32	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	0	-10	16.2	12.3	3.95	15.6	15.6	0.09
Goran Dragic	75	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-7	4	14.0	12.1	1.93	15.3	16.5	-1.16
Josh Richardson	74	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-6	2	13.1	14.8	-1.78	15.5	15.8	-0.27
Justise Winslow	68	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.28	0	-10	10	12.3	16.2	-3.95	15.6	15.6	-0.09
Rodney McGruder	59	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-4	-2	15.3	10.9	4.41	15.7	15.4	0.24
James Johnson	39	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	12.2	14.4	-2.21	16.5	15.0	1.50
Hassan Whiteside	80	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-9	8	13.6	13.4	0.16	15.2	16.9	-1.72
Tyler Johnson	63	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	3	-16	12.6	15.2	-2.59	15.6	15.6	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.17,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 95, NJN 79	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
SEA 105, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.4%
SAS 111, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%