NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	85		Excitement	7.4 [383]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +26.0%
Washington Wizards	92		Comeback	3.3 [636]		LVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): -29.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jusuf Nurkic	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	93%	0.17	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Arthur	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	10	63%	0.15	4	-0.18	7	71%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	5	60%	0.09	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	13	42%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	4	-0.16	2	0%	-0.04
Danilo Gallinari	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.2	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	11	45%	0.00	5	-0.20	9	78%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.29	-0.18	-0.11	0.00	16	16%	-0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.15	0.13	0.02	15	72%	0.34	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.07
Markieff Morris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	12	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Kelly Oubre	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	9	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	58%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.02	-0.01	14	44%	0.04	5	-0.12	6	83%	-0.01
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	9	50%	-0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	0.00	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.0	29.1	14.8	30.1	2.4	36.5	140.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +26.9%

WAS +11.0%

DEN -28.8%

WAS +46.0%

DEN -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	13.8	14.8	87.6	92.9	107.7
season	14.4	14.4		111.6	109.9
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.7	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.4	16.3	17.0	17.2	15.6
WAS	14.7	13.7	14.3	12.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	42	43	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.19	13	-20	33	15.9	15.4	0.49	14.5	13.2	1.34
Darrell Arthur	39	40	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.11	10	-17	27	15.4	15.8	-0.45	15.8	12.4	3.35
Alonzo Gee	1	0	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-7	7	11.0	15.7	-4.68	0.0	13.8	-13.78
Jamal Murray	36	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.11	-6	-1	-5	15.1	15.9	-0.82	12.3	14.6	-2.32
Danilo Gallinari	63	66	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.39	10	-17	27	15.2	16.4	-1.11	14.7	11.9	2.76
Juan Hernangomez	25	26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	3	-13	15.3	15.7	-0.42	12.2	14.3	-2.15
Will Barton	87	88	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-5	3	15.8	14.0	1.82	14.1	11.3	2.82
Jameer Nelson	71	73	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.46	-6	-1	-5	15.7	15.5	0.12	14.1	12.8	1.37
Nikola Jokic	55	56	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.10	-20	13	-33	15.4	15.9	-0.49	13.2	14.5	-1.34
Wilson Chandler	66	66	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.13	-24	17	-41	16.3	14.1	2.25	12.3	16.8	-4.52

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	78	76	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.53	9	-2	11	13.8	13.6	0.20	15.6	15.9	-0.35
Otto Porter	74	74	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-4	15	13.6	14.2	-0.56	15.8	15.2	0.60
Bradley Beal	74	72	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.46	6	1	5	14.5	11.7	2.75	15.5	16.0	-0.45
Kelly Oubre	55	53	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-4	15	12.3	15.6	-3.35	15.6	15.6	0.03
Marcin Gortat	71	70	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.38	1	6	-5	14.4	12.1	2.33	16.1	14.3	1.85
Andrew Nicholson	14	14	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	2	3	11.0	14.2	-3.24	17.0	15.4	1.60
Jason Smith	13	13	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	6	-5	13.2	13.9	-0.72	11.4	16.3	-4.90
Marcus Thornton	25	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.16	1	6	-5	11.7	14.5	-2.75	16.0	15.5	0.45
Markieff Morris	67	65	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.02	-5	12	-17	14.9	11.5	3.41	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Trey Burke	24	23	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.23	-5	12	-17	14.4	13.6	0.84	15.6	15.6	-0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.75,0.58,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.64,0.59,0.72,0.68,0.89,0.78,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.28,0.42,0.57,0.53,0.73,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.95,1	92.5%
VAN 87, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.42,0.3,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.73,0.89,0.9,0.91,1	91.5%
UTA 98, CHA 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.59,0.66,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.99,1,1	91.3%