NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	100		Excitement	7.5 [348]		MVP	Brandon Bass (LAL): +21.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	107		Comeback	1.9 [411]		LVP	Jordan Farmar (MEM): -9.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.02	-0.00	12	93%	0.30	5	-0.14	5	60%	-0.03
Chris Andersen	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	12	55%	0.13	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.04
Jarell Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Munford	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Ray McCallum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	10	41%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Zach Randolph	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	17	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Jordan Farmar	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	9	40%	0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.12

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.12,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.12	-0.01	10	75%	0.27	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	13	73%	0.19	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.07	-0.01	8	76%	0.20	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	18	50%	0.19	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Marcelo Huertas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	10	52%	0.03	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.8	29.8	16.8	30.5	2.7	32.5	139.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +27.0%

LAL +9.9%

LAL +3.4%

LAL +0.1%

LAL +9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	LAL	NBA	MEM	LAL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.1	14.9	104.2	109.2	105.1
season	15.7	15.2		103.4	100.1
opponent	14.5	14.8		109.9	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.2	14.8	14.4	14.0	14.6
LAL	14.2	14.6	15.0	16.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Xavier Munford	8	7	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.01	4	-11	15	12.2	14.9	-2.60	15.7	15.0	0.71
Vince Carter	31	33	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-9	11	13.8	15.0	-1.22	12.5	16.3	-3.82
Jarell Martin	27	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-12	17	13.7	15.0	-1.35	12.5	16.1	-3.57
Ryan Hollins	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-5	3	14.3	14.7	-0.37	12.2	15.4	-3.18
Ray McCallum	34	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-2	-3	14.7	14.6	0.06	16.8	14.2	2.62
Chris Andersen	28	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	15.4	14.3	1.12	17.9	13.9	3.98
JaMychal Green	41	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.17	-2	-5	3	14.2	14.9	-0.73	13.5	16.2	-2.67
Jordan Farmar	62	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-5	3	14.6	14.7	-0.06	14.2	16.8	-2.62
Zach Randolph	73	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	14.8	14.3	0.49	16.2	11.2	5.01
Lance Stephenson	44	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	0	-7	15.4	14.0	1.43	13.8	16.0	-2.20
Tony Allen	61	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	0	-7	14.5	14.9	-0.35	16.1	13.3	2.76
Matt Barnes	61	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.10	-13	6	-19	15.2	13.7	1.54	16.1	13.2	2.92

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Clarkson	65	63	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.28	14	-7	21	16.1	13.0	3.14	14.6	14.7	-0.09
Julius Randle	66	64	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-3	13	16.2	12.6	3.60	14.7	14.5	0.16
Lou Williams	57	56	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	2	3	13.6	17.1	-3.48	14.2	15.3	-1.10
Brandon Bass	59	57	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	2	3	13.8	16.9	-3.15	14.2	15.3	-1.18
Kobe Bryant	58	58	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	-2	11	16.1	13.5	2.66	15.5	13.3	2.14
Roy Hibbert	39	39	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	5	-3	16.9	13.8	3.15	15.3	14.2	1.18
D'Angelo Russell	41	40	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	5	-3	17.1	13.6	3.48	15.3	14.2	1.10
Metta World Peace	30	29	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	10	-13	12.5	16.2	-3.63	14.1	14.9	-0.71
Tarik Black	32	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.06	-3	10	-13	12.6	16.2	-3.60	14.5	14.7	-0.16
Marcelo Huertas	43	42	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.09	-6	13	-19	13.7	16.1	-2.33	13.9	15.2	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.82,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.86,0.84,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 84, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.91,1	92.9%
DET 82, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.72,0.73,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.95,0.99,1,1	92.8%
CHA 86, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	92.3%