NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	7.1 [422]		MVP	Jonas Jerebko (BOS): +8.2%
Indiana Pacers	103		Comeback	1.9 [622]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -20.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	12	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Terry Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Coty Clarke	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	7	37%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	18	48%	0.09	3	-0.12	8	100%	0.06
Avery Bradley	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	13	38%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.02	0.07	11	54%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Tyler Zeller	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	9	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	12	43%	-0.05	3	-0.16	4	75%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	16	66%	0.18	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	54%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.03	13	54%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.08	0.03	12	57%	0.14	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.05
Joe Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	9	38%	-0.07	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	28.6	16.7	27.2	2.3	39.3	137.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +37.4%

IND +0.7%

BOS -2.6%

IND +13.1%

IND +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	14.3	14.3	14.9	98.0	102.0	105.1
season	13.9	14.6		104.5	103.2
opponent	14.9	15.0		101.6	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.1	14.7	16.1	12.6	14.3
IND	14.1	15.3	14.5	13.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	47	47	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.13	7	-12	19	13.8	14.8	-1.06	16.2	12.7	3.49
Coty Clarke	6	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	19.5	14.0	5.50	13.0	14.4	-1.40
Terry Rozier	21	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	4	-13	16.7	13.7	2.96	14.7	14.2	0.42
Marcus Smart	66	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-5	5	13.9	15.1	-1.15	15.9	11.7	4.18
Jared Sullinger	63	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-9	13	13.5	15.8	-2.31	14.6	13.9	0.73
Isaiah Thomas	75	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.41	4	-9	13	13.7	16.3	-2.65	14.2	14.7	-0.54
Avery Bradley	80	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-3	1	14.2	14.9	-0.71	14.6	13.2	1.40
Tyler Zeller	25	28	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.03	-12	7	-19	17.0	13.4	3.61	14.0	14.5	-0.50
Jonas Jerebko	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	3	-11	14.0	14.8	-0.76	12.8	16.4	-3.60
Evan Turner	58	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	3	-11	15.0	13.4	1.55	12.4	17.2	-4.83

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lavoy Allen	55	53	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.25	19	-14	33	13.6	15.2	-1.56	15.0	13.6	1.43
Jordan Hill	49	47	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.28	17	-12	29	14.5	14.2	0.32	14.7	14.0	0.78
Paul George	74	76	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	2	1	14.5	13.8	0.70	13.9	15.5	-1.59
George Hill	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	6	-7	15.3	12.7	2.61	13.5	15.7	-2.22
Solomon Hill	38	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-3	11	13.2	15.0	-1.87	15.7	13.6	2.09
Rodney Stuckey	41	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.09	5	0	5	13.1	15.2	-2.07	15.4	13.6	1.87
Monta Ellis	73	73	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.32	-5	10	-15	14.0	15.1	-1.08	13.2	17.5	-4.32
Joe Young	17	17	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	3	-1	13.7	14.5	-0.75	16.8	13.8	3.00
Ian Mahinmi	51	51	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.02	-10	15	-25	14.5	14.2	0.25	14.2	14.5	-0.31
Myles Turner	43	44	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.07	-13	18	-31	16.1	13.0	3.12	14.0	14.6	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.43,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.99,0.98,1	94.8%
BOS 77, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.7%
ORL 98, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.4,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.91,0.9,1	92.5%