NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	9.1 [119]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +26.7%
Philadelphia 76ers	99		Comeback	3.3 [542]		LVP	Brian Skinner (PHI): -18.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0,-0.05,0,-0.07,-0.07,0.27	0.03	0.24	0.00	26	56%	0.35	2	-0.08	14	79%	0.02
Mike Miller	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.21	0.14	0.07	0.00	21	73%	0.47	4	-0.26	3	67%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	10	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ryan Humphrey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Jeryl Sasser	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	13	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	3	14%	-0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.17	0.00	9	53%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Coleman	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.01	14	69%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	8	71%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	73%	0.04	1	-0.04	9	78%	0.01
John Salmons	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	61%	0.10	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.14
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.07
Allen Iverson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.05	22	40%	-0.03	5	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	0.00	3	0%	-0.12	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.7	33.2	18.7	33.2	2.7	49.1	164.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -28.7%

PHI +58.8%

PHI +21.7%

PHI +2.4%

ORL -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHI	NBA	ORL	PHI	NBA
this game	15.1	16.1	15.5	107.7	105.3	101.6
season	14.6	15.3		102.7	102.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.7	14.0	15.8	14.1	15.1
PHI	16.8	14.8	16.2	16.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	51	55	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.17	13	-14	27	14.1	16.3	-2.20	16.9	14.9	1.93
Andrew DeClercq	65	66	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.13	10	-11	21	14.8	15.7	-0.93	17.5	12.7	4.76
Pat Garrity	65	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.38	10	-11	21	14.7	16.0	-1.25	16.8	14.4	2.32
Mike Miller	80	83	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.40	10	-11	21	14.7	18.0	-3.34	16.6	12.3	4.28
Ryan Humphrey	5	7	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	7	-15	20.2	14.8	5.43	10.9	16.5	-5.61
Pat Burke	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	1	-3	15.5	14.9	0.59	16.0	16.1	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	82	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-4	7	14.9	16.8	-1.90	16.3	13.6	2.75
Steven Hunter	17	18	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	14	-29	18.2	14.4	3.83	12.9	16.8	-3.85
Jeryl Sasser	20	21	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.13	-15	14	-29	17.4	14.4	3.06	12.9	17.0	-4.05
Darrell Armstrong	46	47	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.51	-11	10	-21	15.1	15.0	0.04	14.1	18.0	-3.89

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron McKie	53	52	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.49	6	-5	11	15.3	17.0	-1.77	14.3	16.1	-1.81
Kenny Thomas	65	62	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	-1	3	15.3	17.8	-2.52	15.6	13.9	1.72
Allen Iverson	82	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	1	-1	16.0	16.4	-0.42	15.1	14.7	0.46
Greg Buckner	27	26	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	-11	23	13.4	17.1	-3.76	15.6	14.8	0.77
Brian Skinner	30	27	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	-6	13	15.3	16.4	-1.06	16.9	14.3	2.59
Derrick Coleman	57	58	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	4	-7	17.0	14.6	2.36	15.1	15.1	-0.04
John Salmons	12	12	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	-3	7	12.7	16.5	-3.88	16.7	14.8	1.94
Eric Snow	79	76	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.34	-10	11	-21	16.9	11.6	5.30	14.6	17.5	-2.87
Keith Van Horn	65	63	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.23	-13	14	-27	17.8	12.2	5.51	14.3	16.7	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.4,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.91,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 98, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.43,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.5%
CHH 80, HOU 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.85,0.97,1	91.7%
NJN 101, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	91.3%