NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	4.8 [880]		MVP	Joe Johnson (MIA): +19.7%
Miami Heat	129		Comeback	1.1 [1095]		LVP	Tony Snell (CHI): -4.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.03	7	71%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	6	68%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.07	3	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Bobby Portis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	8	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.01	0.03	15	46%	0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	13	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cameron Bairstow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	12	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Cristiano Felicio	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.05	0.02	13	86%	0.24	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.19	0.02	0.07	11	79%	0.15	1	-0.01	11	91%	0.04
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.02	0.04	10	91%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	13	56%	0.13	5	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.05	14	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	35.2	14.8	24.2	2.4	29.3	130.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.1%

MIA +1.9%

MIA +1.6%

CHI -9.1%

CHI -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	14.9	14.9	112.1	130.3	105.1
season	14.8	15.5		103.7	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.1	13.3	15.4	14.0	14.2
MIA	15.3	13.8	15.9	14.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cameron Bairstow	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-20	22	10.5	14.3	-3.76	17.7	14.8	2.84
Aaron Brooks	45	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-14	10	14.2	14.1	0.07	14.5	15.2	-0.70
Cristiano Felicio	14	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.14	-7	-11	4	15.0	14.0	0.95	13.4	15.1	-1.75
Bobby Portis	57	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-12	6	14.3	14.1	0.19	14.6	15.3	-0.78
Justin Holiday	34	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-10	2	13.8	14.4	-0.64	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Doug McDermott	53	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-11	4	14.5	13.8	0.66	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Tony Snell	30	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-14	10	13.8	14.4	-0.60	15.8	14.5	1.31
E'Twaun Moore	39	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-12	6	14.5	14.0	0.55	14.8	14.9	-0.10
Mike Dunleavy	62	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-11	4	14.2	14.1	0.07	14.8	15.1	-0.36
Taj Gibson	47	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-10	2	14.5	13.9	0.59	15.1	14.7	0.42
Pau Gasol	61	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	-2	-14	13.9	14.6	-0.69	15.2	14.4	0.82
Derrick Rose	51	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	1	-20	13.9	14.5	-0.54	15.1	14.7	0.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	70	71	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.21	25	-7	32	14.6	15.6	-1.01	14.6	13.0	1.65
Joe Johnson	68	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.25	24	-6	30	14.3	16.3	-1.96	14.1	14.4	-0.31
Amar'e Stoudemire	30	31	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.01	16	2	14	15.7	14.6	1.18	15.0	13.8	1.24
Luol Deng	74	75	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.05	14	4	10	15.0	14.6	0.47	14.6	12.8	1.84
Dwyane Wade	70	72	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.04	13	5	8	14.9	14.9	-0.03	14.1	14.5	-0.41
Justise Winslow	57	55	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.22	-2	20	-22	15.5	14.1	1.45	13.7	14.7	-1.02
Josh Richardson	57	54	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	20	-22	15.2	14.5	0.79	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Hassan Whiteside	69	68	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	16	-14	14.6	15.7	-1.18	13.8	15.0	-1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 74, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
CHA 78, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
CLE 113, GSW 132	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%