NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	7.6 [335]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +15.1%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	2.5 [736]		LVP	Luol Deng (MIA): -17.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	9	62%	0.16	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Goran Dragic	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	15	66%	0.14	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	79%	0.10	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	19	42%	-0.01	4	-0.10	7	71%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	10	30%	-0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	6	0%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	13	35%	-0.11	3	-0.07	5	20%	-0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	9	65%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	80%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	0.00	15	42%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	12	52%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	45%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	13	43%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.00	17	32%	-0.09	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	30.7	15.4	25.3	2.3	28.5	129.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +12.6%

BOS +11.3%

MIA -5.3%

BOS +27.6%

BOS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	14.2	13.7	14.9	85.6	99.0	105.1
season	15.5	13.9		104.5	104.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		101.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	14.1	15.2	14.9	14.2
BOS	12.8	14.7	13.0	14.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amar'e Stoudemire	34	34	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.04	5	-17	22	14.5	14.1	0.33	13.0	14.1	-1.10
Gerald Green	44	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-8	4	14.1	14.4	-0.32	12.7	14.4	-1.77
Goran Dragic	73	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-11	10	13.8	15.4	-1.62	14.2	12.4	1.80
Justise Winslow	70	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-6	0	13.8	15.3	-1.51	13.9	13.2	0.71
Luol Deng	72	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-6	0	14.1	14.5	-0.41	14.1	12.8	1.24
Josh McRoberts	28	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-2	-8	15.2	13.9	1.32	12.4	14.2	-1.72
Dwyane Wade	72	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.00	-13	1	-14	15.1	12.3	2.84	13.4	14.3	-0.84
Josh Richardson	57	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	-4	-4	14.2	14.3	-0.13	14.0	13.4	0.63
Hassan Whiteside	70	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.11	-17	5	-22	14.1	14.5	-0.33	14.1	13.0	1.10

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	61	63	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	0	12	13.3	14.2	-0.90	13.5	15.4	-1.96
Avery Bradley	73	76	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	-2	16	14.1	12.7	1.42	15.0	12.2	2.74
Jared Sullinger	49	51	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.06	12	0	12	14.2	13.2	0.96	14.9	13.6	1.28
Isaiah Thomas	66	65	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	4	4	14.0	13.1	0.88	13.9	14.8	-0.91
Evan Turner	60	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	5	2	13.6	13.8	-0.22	14.1	14.4	-0.28
Jae Crowder	72	74	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	7	-2	13.7	13.7	-0.04	13.6	15.9	-2.27
Jonas Jerebko	42	43	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	7	-2	13.3	14.0	-0.75	15.2	13.6	1.64
Tyler Zeller	43	45	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	9	-6	13.2	14.1	-0.90	14.5	14.1	0.46
Amir Johnson	44	43	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	18	-24	13.6	13.8	-0.20	13.9	14.5	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.81,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 88, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.44,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	92.9%
SAS 87, PHX 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.61,0.72,0.68,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.86,0.93,1,1,1	92.6%
SAS 75, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.53,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.8,0.79,0.97,1,1	92.3%