NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	7.3 [388]		MVP	Luol Deng (MIA): +14.0%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	2.4 [298]		LVP	Chandler Parsons (DAL): -10.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	9	60%	0.17	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	5	100%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.08	0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08	-0.06	0.10	-0.04	19	39%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	2	33%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Justise Winslow	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.08	-0.02	23	43%	-0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	10	35%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.13	0.13	0.13	-0.00	-0.00	21	57%	0.13	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	12	39%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	10	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	53%	0.07	1	-0.07	5	40%	-0.05
Justin Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	12	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	13	41%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	28.8	17.6	23.5	1.8	34.1	133.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.0%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +32.3%

DAL -11.5%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.4	14.9	102.2	98.9	105.1
season	15.5	15.5		104.5	105.0
opponent	14.7	15.1		106.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	14.7	14.3	17.0	15.3
DAL	16.3	16.6	17.7	14.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	58	58	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	-3	9	14.6	16.4	-1.77	16.1	16.8	-0.68
Goran Dragic	62	61	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.42	2	1	1	15.1	15.7	-0.63	17.2	14.6	2.61
Luol Deng	60	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	3	-3	15.2	15.3	-0.09	17.1	15.1	1.94
Hassan Whiteside	32	32	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	-4	11	15.0	15.4	-0.36	16.7	16.2	0.42
Gerald Green	48	50	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	-4	11	14.7	15.9	-1.13	16.4	16.3	0.08
Dwyane Wade	54	51	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	7	-11	15.6	14.8	0.72	16.7	16.0	0.73
Amar'e Stoudemire	32	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	2	-1	15.1	15.4	-0.26	18.1	15.4	2.68
Chris Bosh	61	62	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.40	-10	13	-23	16.7	12.4	4.22	15.0	19.4	-4.45
Josh McRoberts	19	20	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	-1	5	14.1	15.6	-1.53	15.3	16.7	-1.33
Beno Udrih	29	30	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	1	1	15.7	15.1	0.63	14.6	17.2	-2.61

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	70	68	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-13	23	15.0	21.1	-6.19	16.3	12.2	4.08
Jose Juan Barea	67	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-9	15	15.4	19.2	-3.84	16.2	12.7	3.41
Justin Anderson	43	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	0	-3	16.8	16.0	0.73	13.8	16.7	-2.81
Zaza Pachulia	74	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-9	15	15.1	21.8	-6.62	16.1	11.5	4.59
JaVale McGee	16	16	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	5	-13	22.2	15.1	7.12	12.2	15.9	-3.66
Raymond Felton	58	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	0	-3	15.9	17.2	-1.25	14.6	16.6	-2.00
Wesley Matthews	68	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.42	-6	3	-9	17.4	13.3	4.06	15.4	15.0	0.36
Chandler Parsons	59	58	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.20	-17	14	-31	18.2	13.1	5.08	14.4	16.7	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.29,0.42,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 95, DAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.27,0.13,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.43,0.05,0	91.2%
DET 98, IND 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.28,0.32,0.04,0	91.1%
PHI 78, DET 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.14,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	91.1%