NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	7.3 [391]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +20.2%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	11.0 [144]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -21.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2	0.11	0.13	0.04	13	75%	0.30	3	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	80%	0.19	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.01	14	47%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	13	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.09	0.01	10	55%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	5	18%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Hassan Whiteside	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15,-0.15	0.02	-0.16	0.01	13	61%	0.09	4	-0.24	5	60%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Arthur	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	12	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Sean Kilpatrick	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	9	56%	0.01	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	14	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	8	45%	-0.06	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.16	-0.02	10	42%	-0.13	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	34.4	15.5	28.1	1.6	32.4	135.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +79.7%

DEN -18.1%

MIA +8.9%

DEN -23.7%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.6	14.4	14.9	105.4	102.2	105.1
season	15.5	14.9		104.5	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	14.5	17.4	17.8	16.6
DEN	13.7	14.3	13.3	16.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	70	71	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-8	19	17.1	15.0	2.03	14.6	13.7	0.94
Luol Deng	76	76	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.36	12	-9	21	16.2	18.3	-2.11	14.3	14.9	-0.59
Hassan Whiteside	76	74	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-9	21	16.7	15.8	0.99	14.0	15.8	-1.75
Tyler Johnson	58	58	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.49	4	-1	5	16.3	17.0	-0.64	14.8	13.7	1.05
Justise Winslow	42	44	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	3	-3	17.7	15.6	2.09	15.3	13.6	1.79
Chris Bosh	62	62	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.32	-6	9	-15	16.0	17.6	-1.61	14.6	14.1	0.50
Gerald Green	48	48	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.15	2	1	1	16.5	16.7	-0.23	13.9	14.9	-0.99
Amar'e Stoudemire	12	12	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	14	-25	16.7	16.6	0.11	14.2	14.4	-0.27
Josh Richardson	21	20	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.04	-9	12	-21	15.8	16.8	-0.98	12.9	14.8	-1.91

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	14	13	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.03	3	-6	9	13.9	14.5	-0.64	17.1	16.5	0.59
Sean Kilpatrick	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-3	3	4.0	14.5	-10.51	3.0	16.7	-13.72
Nikola Jokic	33	34	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-6	9	14.3	14.4	-0.15	16.4	16.6	-0.20
Emmanuel Mudiay	47	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-5	7	14.7	14.1	0.62	17.4	15.7	1.71
Will Barton	54	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-3	3	14.3	14.6	-0.33	16.2	17.1	-0.89
Kenneth Faried	51	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	0	-3	14.7	14.0	0.77	16.9	16.2	0.65
Danilo Gallinari	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	1	-5	14.1	15.8	-1.78	16.0	18.7	-2.72
Darrell Arthur	58	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	1	-5	14.6	14.1	0.55	17.3	15.3	2.06
Jameer Nelson	59	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.37	-6	3	-9	14.9	13.4	1.51	16.4	16.8	-0.35
Gary Harris	73	74	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	3	-9	14.1	15.5	-1.40	16.3	17.6	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.84,0.79,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.15,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 104, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.54,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.41,0.33,0.46,0.15,0.09,0.16,0	90.0%
SAC 111, LAL 109	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.19,0.29,0.15,0.58,0	89.8%
SAC 94, IND 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.35,0.32,0.46,0.15,0.27,0	89.7%