NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	110		Excitement	6.8 [466]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +24.4%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	2.0 [167]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (DEN): -18.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	8	83%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Rush	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	44%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Leandro Barbosa	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Harrison Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	17	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.06	-0.05	0.02	13	61%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.05,-0.02	0.09	-0.09	0.02	25	67%	0.32	8	-0.34	7	100%	0.05
Shaun Livingston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	5	8%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.10	-0.02	11	75%	0.26	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.02	0.02	14	60%	0.14	0	0.00	19	89%	0.07
Gary Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	14	59%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	11	75%	0.17	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	-0.01	10	15%	-0.12	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.0	26.2	15.7	26.1	2.4	39.4	138.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -5.7%

DEN +15.8%

DEN +26.4%

DEN +12.1%

DEN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	13.0	15.3	14.9	110.0	108.7	105.1
season	13.7	14.9		112.3	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.1	14.8	14.5	11.3	13.0
DEN	14.5	17.2	16.8	13.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	23	26	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-5	8	13.1	13.0	0.07	18.3	14.3	3.96
Brandon Rush	37	40	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.17	7	-9	16	12.8	13.2	-0.39	16.6	14.5	2.11
Marreese Speights	14	14	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-2	2	12.0	13.2	-1.20	11.9	15.8	-3.91
Leandro Barbosa	22	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-2	2	12.0	13.3	-1.26	11.6	16.4	-4.82
Andrew Bogut	59	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-1	0	13.7	12.0	1.75	17.5	11.8	5.74
Klay Thompson	71	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.33	4	-6	10	13.3	12.4	0.82	16.8	11.6	5.18
Shaun Livingston	37	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	4	-10	13.2	12.9	0.30	12.9	16.7	-3.87
Festus Ezeli	18	17	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	6	-14	13.2	13.0	0.23	10.9	16.2	-5.23
Andre Iguodala	69	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-1	0	12.9	13.3	-0.42	14.5	16.9	-2.43
Stephen Curry	80	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	13.2	12.5	0.66	16.2	12.0	4.16
Harrison Barnes	70	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	12.6	13.9	-1.29	14.0	18.0	-3.97

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	59	58	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-9	20	13.7	17.4	-3.70	13.2	12.8	0.34
Will Barton	59	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	4	-6	13.9	17.2	-3.35	12.6	13.7	-1.07
Danilo Gallinari	78	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	1	0	16.3	12.1	4.27	13.1	12.7	0.42
Nikola Jokic	36	32	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.01	13	-11	24	14.9	15.6	-0.69	13.7	12.7	1.06
Emmanuel Mudiay	42	42	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	2	-2	12.5	17.3	-4.79	11.9	13.8	-1.94
Gary Harris	84	82	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.32	-1	3	-4	15.5	14.6	0.90	12.6	14.8	-2.20
Jameer Nelson	65	62	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.23	-3	5	-8	16.8	12.7	4.16	13.2	12.7	0.47
Jusuf Nurkic	30	30	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	2	-2	16.2	15.0	1.21	13.3	12.9	0.34
Kenneth Faried	39	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	3	-4	17.9	13.7	4.20	13.8	12.6	1.24
Randy Foye	14	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	6	-10	14.5	15.4	-0.94	14.1	12.9	1.20
Mike Miller	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	6	-10	15.6	15.3	0.27	13.7	13.0	0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.67,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.99,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%
GSW 86, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%
ATL 109, DAL 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.9,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	93.6%