NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	5.9 [656]		MVP	Cartier Martin (ATL): +13.2%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	1.4 [884]		LVP	Jose Calderon (DAL): -12.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cartier Martin	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.06	0.06	8	77%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	15	59%	0.10	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Elton Brand	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.03	5	80%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	9	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	7	64%	0.04	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pero Antic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.05	0.05	13	63%	0.11	6	-0.19	12	75%	0.00
Mike Scott	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	12	42%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	16	62%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.05	0.06	17	76%	0.27	7	-0.18	8	100%	0.05
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.16	0.02	0.12	14	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Gal Mekel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	7	31%	-0.03	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.7	27.4	16.4	28.6	2.5	31.2	134.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.6%

ATL -4.1%

DAL +5.4%

DAL +0.1%

DAL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DAL	NBA	ATL	DAL	NBA
this game	13.2	14.4	15.1	103.8	113.5	105.2
season	14.8	15.3		103.8	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.3		107.0	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.6	12.2	13.9	13.0	13.2
DAL	14.2	15.5	12.8	15.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelvin Mack	9	9	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.25	11	-20	31	10.6	13.4	-2.84	14.3	14.4	-0.09
Paul Millsap	79	77	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.20	-7	-2	-5	12.9	13.9	-0.97	14.6	13.7	0.91
Dennis Schroder	37	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-19	29	14.7	12.3	2.35	14.7	14.2	0.47
Cartier Martin	32	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.40	7	-16	23	14.5	12.5	1.98	15.2	14.0	1.17
Pero Antic	17	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.34	5	-14	19	11.9	13.4	-1.52	14.3	14.4	-0.14
Kyle Korver	78	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	3	-15	13.1	13.3	-0.24	14.7	13.6	1.06
Mike Scott	16	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-6	3	15.1	12.8	2.25	13.1	14.6	-1.52
Al Horford	71	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.16	-14	5	-19	12.5	14.6	-2.12	14.8	13.6	1.14
Elton Brand	27	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.35	1	-10	11	15.3	12.4	2.94	13.6	14.7	-1.06
DeMarre Carroll	80	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	10	-29	12.6	14.9	-2.27	14.0	15.7	-1.76
Jeff Teague	79	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	0.08	-24	15	-39	12.8	14.3	-1.48	14.1	15.3	-1.19

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	82	82	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.06	14	-5	19	14.4	14.3	0.12	12.7	14.8	-2.09
Shawn Marion	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-2	13	13.8	15.5	-1.70	12.7	14.1	-1.37
DeJuan Blair	40	41	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	3	3	15.7	13.6	2.09	15.1	11.9	3.27
Jose Calderon	79	78	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	5	-1	14.2	15.2	-1.04	12.2	15.8	-3.53
Dirk Nowitzki	71	73	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.21	18	-9	27	14.4	14.4	0.03	13.4	12.6	0.76
Vince Carter	54	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	15	-21	14.4	14.4	-0.05	13.0	13.3	-0.36
Wayne Ellington	26	28	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	6	-3	14.5	14.4	0.06	15.4	12.3	3.10
Samuel Dalembert	64	64	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	6	-3	13.6	15.7	-2.09	11.9	15.1	-3.27
Jae Crowder	18	17	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.20	-6	15	-21	16.4	14.0	2.46	14.7	12.9	1.85
Gal Mekel	17	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	11	-13	15.6	14.2	1.40	15.7	12.7	3.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.9,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 85, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.82,0.71,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,1,1	95.4%
NYK 105, MIA 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
IND 95, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	94.1%