NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	105		Excitement	5.6 [712]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +48.9%
Miami Heat	122		Comeback	1.3 [982]		LVP	Nate Robinson (NYK): -8.6%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Jeffries	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.01	5	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.01	-0.06	18	48%	0.10	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Chris Wilcox	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.00	4	73%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
David Lee	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.02	-0.06	13	41%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	6	71%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	19	48%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	13	48%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Nate Robinson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	36%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49	0.49	0.36	0.13	-0.00	30	75%	0.55	3	-0.06	13	85%	0.03
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.17	0.11	0.04	19	68%	0.28	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	11	65%	0.09	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.8	26.3	16.3	29.4	1.8	27.0	128.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +60.5%

NYK -4.0%

MIA +9.6%

NYK -17.0%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.9	15.5	114.1	131.2	106.4
season	13.8	16.0		106.2	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.7	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	15.2	12.5	15.5	18.1	15.2
MIA	14.2	16.3	18.0	15.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	46	47	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.29	14	-31	45	13.5	17.0	-3.43	15.5	16.3	-0.73
Chris Wilcox	33	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-19	21	13.2	16.4	-3.16	15.5	16.1	-0.62
Chris Duhon	54	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-5	-7	16.6	13.4	3.19	16.4	15.1	1.26
Jared Jeffries	49	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	-6	-5	15.7	14.8	0.89	16.3	15.5	0.80
Nate Robinson	40	39	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-14	11	13.4	16.7	-3.25	15.0	16.6	-1.58
Quentin Richardson	64	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-10	3	14.5	16.8	-2.27	15.0	17.9	-2.86
David Lee	50	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	-4	-9	15.9	14.4	1.49	15.9	15.9	0.05
Al Harrington	72	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.19	-24	7	-31	15.7	13.5	2.22	16.5	13.6	2.86
Wilson Chandler	52	51	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	0.26	-31	14	-45	17.2	12.6	4.58	16.5	15.2	1.28

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	78	77	0.69	-0.19	0.89	-0.16	29	-12	41	16.1	14.9	1.22	15.8	12.6	3.15
Dwyane Wade	75	75	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.08	24	-7	31	15.4	18.1	-2.75	15.8	12.9	2.82
Joel Anthony	33	33	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	3	11	15.5	16.1	-0.54	16.8	14.4	2.37
Mario Chalmers	75	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	1	15	16.3	14.3	1.93	15.5	14.2	1.23
Daequan Cook	49	49	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	10	-3	15.8	16.0	-0.29	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Yakhouba Diawara	42	44	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	12	-7	16.0	15.8	0.11	15.0	15.4	-0.37
Jermaine O'Neal	27	27	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.12	6	11	-5	15.0	16.3	-1.26	15.1	15.3	-0.23
Jamaal Magloire	33	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	20	-23	17.0	15.3	1.67	13.8	16.0	-2.19
Dorell Wright	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	17.5	15.9	1.64	18.0	15.2	2.79
Chris Quinn	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	17.5	15.9	1.64	18.0	15.2	2.79
James Jones	49	46	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.27	-13	30	-43	15.8	16.0	-0.25	13.3	17.2	-3.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	94.9%
TOR 64, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
ATL 109, DAL 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.9,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	94.1%