NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	8.2 [239]		MVP	Greg Monroe (MIL): +30.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	9.9 [88]		LVP	Pau Gasol (CHI): -16.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.01	11	77%	0.20	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.03,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	21	56%	0.25	4	-0.20	12	83%	0.02
Nikola Mirotic	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	13	61%	0.15	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Joakim Noah	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Portis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	5	50%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.06	0.03	12	38%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.08	0.23	0.01	13	59%	0.30	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	14	69%	0.30	0	0.00	14	64%	-0.06
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0,0,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.11	-0.00	16	47%	0.15	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	14	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Johnny O'Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	9	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	13	35%	-0.11	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	30.4	14.8	28.4	2.4	37.9	141.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +30.5%

CHI -7.8%

CHI -10.2%

MIL +39.0%

CHI -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	14.9	107.4	115.2	105.1
season	14.8	14.8		103.7	102.8
opponent	15.3	14.9		107.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.2	15.3	16.6	16.0	15.8
MIL	17.5	15.3	14.0	14.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	63	59	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.08	1	-6	7	15.6	16.2	-0.53	14.9	15.5	-0.57
Doug McDermott	11	12	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-7	9	13.7	16.1	-2.36	17.4	14.8	2.60
Joakim Noah	28	29	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.19	-5	0	-5	15.7	15.8	-0.13	15.9	14.8	1.04
Bobby Portis	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	0	-5	14.3	15.9	-1.65	16.1	15.1	1.07
Tony Snell	58	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.37	7	-12	19	15.9	15.6	0.32	15.3	14.9	0.38
Aaron Brooks	35	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-8	11	14.9	16.3	-1.38	14.5	15.5	-0.99
Kirk Hinrich	23	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	3	-11	14.7	16.2	-1.53	14.5	15.4	-0.87
Derrick Rose	44	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	4	-13	17.1	14.7	2.45	15.4	14.9	0.48
Pau Gasol	72	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.57	3	-8	11	15.7	16.3	-0.67	14.9	16.0	-1.07
Jimmy Butler	79	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-3	1	16.0	14.9	1.12	14.9	16.3	-1.33
Taj Gibson	50	50	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.45	-12	7	-19	16.5	15.0	1.56	15.3	14.9	0.41

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	59	62	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.39	19	-14	33	14.8	15.8	-1.04	16.3	14.9	1.37
Greg Monroe	74	72	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.47	14	-9	23	15.0	15.8	-0.78	15.8	16.0	-0.19
Jabari Parker	57	55	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.55	7	-2	9	14.4	16.4	-2.01	15.4	16.3	-0.90
Michael Carter-Williams	71	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.53	5	0	5	14.7	16.7	-2.02	15.7	16.3	-0.64
Khris Middleton	77	79	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	3	-1	14.9	16.3	-1.33	16.0	14.9	1.12
Johnny O'Bryant	5	6	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	9	-13	21.8	14.8	7.03	18.3	15.6	2.70
O.J. Mayo	48	49	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.26	-1	6	-7	15.6	14.6	1.03	16.0	15.6	0.49
Rashad Vaughn	28	30	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.14	-5	10	-15	16.9	14.4	2.50	15.2	16.1	-0.89
John Henson	41	42	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	-0.10	-12	17	-29	15.7	14.7	0.91	15.4	16.2	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 102, MIL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.78,0.91,1	90.7%
ATL 96, TOR 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.85,0.98,1	90.2%
DAL 99, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.51,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.21,0.29,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.68,0.95,1	89.7%