NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	128		Excitement	5.7 [681]		MVP	Draymond Green (GSW): +15.7%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	1.7 [952]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (SAC): -17.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Draymond Green	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	12	83%	0.22	4	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.21	-0.00	0.10	21	78%	0.18	4	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	6	92%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	7	67%	0.10	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	10	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Klay Thompson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	17	44%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Clark	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.15	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	10	64%	0.13	1	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	82%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Seth Curry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.03	14	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	55%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.04	0.07	27	52%	0.01	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.00	8	25%	-0.08	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	32.3	15.5	30.5	1.8	30.2	136.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +72.6%

SAC -13.4%

GSW +6.2%

SAC -14.6%

SAC -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	14.0	13.4	14.9	120.8	111.5	105.1
season	13.7	13.9		112.3	104.8
opponent	14.6	15.1		107.1	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.8	14.0	13.3	16.1	14.0
SAC	12.4	12.7	16.1	12.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Klay Thompson	81	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.03	17	-5	22	13.5	15.5	-1.98	13.2	14.0	-0.85
Stephen Curry	85	83	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.03	16	-4	20	13.7	15.2	-1.47	13.5	13.2	0.28
Draymond Green	78	74	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	3	6	13.6	15.1	-1.49	13.2	14.0	-0.78
Harrison Barnes	51	52	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	0	12	14.8	13.2	1.61	13.4	13.5	-0.10
Festus Ezeli	34	33	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	2	8	14.0	14.0	-0.06	14.5	12.9	1.52
Brandon Rush	43	44	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.07	11	1	10	12.7	14.9	-2.13	13.9	13.0	0.86
Andre Iguodala	60	61	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	6	0	14.6	13.2	1.36	13.4	13.4	0.03
Shaun Livingston	33	33	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	15	-18	15.1	13.5	1.57	13.2	13.5	-0.34
Andrew Bogut	51	49	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.36	-11	23	-34	13.8	14.2	-0.40	13.2	13.6	-0.40
Ian Clark	14	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	19	-26	17.3	13.5	3.77	12.9	13.5	-0.56

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	15	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-9	6	14.7	13.2	1.46	17.4	13.5	3.85
Willie Cauley-Stein	20	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-8	4	12.7	13.6	-0.88	15.0	13.8	1.28
Kosta Koufos	26	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-7	2	13.7	13.3	0.32	11.9	14.8	-2.86
Darren Collison	68	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-9	6	12.9	14.4	-1.53	14.8	12.6	2.25
Quincy Acy	48	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-4	-4	13.9	13.0	0.82	13.1	14.8	-1.68
Ben McLemore	60	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-6	0	13.6	13.1	0.56	14.4	13.6	0.78
DeMarcus Cousins	66	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-9	6	13.3	13.5	-0.18	14.1	13.8	0.26
Marco Belinelli	67	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-5	-2	13.2	13.8	-0.53	14.3	13.5	0.78
Rajon Rondo	64	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	-1	-10	13.7	13.0	0.63	13.6	14.8	-1.20
Rudy Gay	86	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	13.3	13.9	-0.57	13.7	15.7	-2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 77, NOH 62	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
LAL 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%
PHI 106, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%