NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	5.1 [808]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +29.6%
Atlanta Hawks	120		Comeback	1.0 [913]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -11.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	17	59%	0.16	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.00	0.04	17	63%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	5	83%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Cameron Bairstow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	6	58%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	10	43%	-0.01	4	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	15	45%	0.02	6	-0.14	8	87%	0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.26	0.10	0.07	21	75%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	7	100%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.01	11	57%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	81%	0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	9	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	16	53%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	27.8	15.0	30.0	1.8	29.6	130.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +51.7%

CHI -9.1%

CHI -9.7%

ATL +13.6%

ATL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	13.3	13.9	14.9	99.1	113.2	105.1
season	14.8	14.2		103.7	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.9		100.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	13.4	11.7	14.3	13.3
ATL	14.8	13.8	14.0	12.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cameron Bairstow	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	10.6	13.5	-2.91	13.0	13.9	-0.94
E'Twaun Moore	15	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-16	17	13.7	13.2	0.44	14.0	13.9	0.14
Pau Gasol	70	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-10	5	13.7	12.6	1.07	14.2	13.2	0.97
Bobby Portis	22	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-11	7	12.5	13.5	-1.00	12.2	14.3	-2.04
Aaron Brooks	12	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	-8	1	14.4	13.1	1.27	11.3	14.2	-2.91
Tony Snell	46	45	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.14	-1	-14	13	11.5	14.6	-3.09	12.9	14.6	-1.64
Jimmy Butler	84	86	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-6	-3	13.7	11.8	1.92	14.5	11.4	3.05
Derrick Rose	79	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-6	-3	13.1	14.0	-0.95	14.2	12.9	1.33
Doug McDermott	54	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-4	-7	14.0	12.6	1.37	13.4	14.4	-1.04
Nikola Mirotic	83	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.02	-16	1	-17	13.7	12.0	1.65	14.3	12.3	1.95
Taj Gibson	58	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.02	-16	1	-17	13.2	13.5	-0.30	13.9	13.8	0.12

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	78	79	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.11	22	-7	29	13.7	14.3	-0.60	14.0	11.1	2.93
Dennis Schroder	48	49	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	-3	21	13.0	14.6	-1.64	13.2	13.4	-0.16
Mike Scott	40	40	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	3	9	13.4	14.2	-0.77	12.9	13.5	-0.63
Tim Hardaway Jr.	38	41	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	3	9	12.6	14.6	-2.02	12.0	14.1	-2.07
Kyle Korver	67	64	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	5	5	14.8	12.2	2.61	13.7	12.7	0.92
Kent Bazemore	59	56	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	4	7	14.0	13.7	0.28	15.0	11.4	3.54
Paul Millsap	70	68	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	11	-7	14.3	13.1	1.12	13.6	12.7	0.87
Justin Holiday	24	30	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.10	-3	18	-21	13.0	14.1	-1.08	12.5	13.6	-1.06
Mike Muscala	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	13.2	13.9	-0.75	10.6	13.5	-2.91
Shelvin Mack	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	13.2	13.9	-0.75	10.6	13.5	-2.91
Jeff Teague	57	54	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	14	-13	14.3	13.4	0.91	13.7	12.8	0.91
Tiago Splitter	37	35	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	23	-31	14.7	13.4	1.27	10.8	14.5	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.74,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CHH 115, NJN 125	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.82,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
BOS 87, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%