NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	7.3 [399]		MVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): +37.9%
Golden State Warriors	111		Comeback	2.3 [834]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -33.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.38	0.06	0.29	-0.03	12	60%	0.39	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	9	63%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	12	46%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	5	21%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.10	-0.08	0.07	18	55%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	62%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18	0.02	-0.18	0.02	18	53%	-0.15	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.33	-0.18	-0.22	-0.08	25	37%	-0.06	5	-0.27	7	57%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.14	-0.02	27	45%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.14	0.14	-0.06	0.15	-0.05	9	38%	0.16	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Draymond Green	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	-0.07	0.00	16	76%	0.14	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	8	94%	0.19	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	6	42%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.2	1.5	30.9	14.7	23.1	1.7	28.0	2.5	16.3	144.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +86.7%

DEN -16.0%

DEN -18.4%

GSW +4.9%

DEN -7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	14.9	106.9	108.8	105.1
season	14.9	13.7		104.3	112.3
opponent	15.1	14.9		102.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	16.4	16.5	15.7	16.4	17.2	16.3
GSW	11.9	14.8	15.7	18.6	14.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	67	68	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.26	-8	5	-13	15.9	17.1	-1.21	14.4	16.2	-1.82
Randy Foye	39	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.35	10	-13	23	15.7	16.7	-0.98	16.1	14.2	1.93
Jusuf Nurkic	11	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	0	-3	13.1	16.7	-3.65	11.9	15.4	-3.45
Mike Miller	21	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-3	3	17.9	15.9	1.97	16.6	14.5	2.04
Darrell Arthur	32	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.52	12	-15	27	17.2	16.0	1.23	16.3	14.3	1.99
Kenneth Faried	54	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	6	-15	16.7	15.9	0.85	14.8	15.2	-0.41
Nikola Jokic	11	13	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.26	-18	15	-33	16.9	16.3	0.63	12.2	15.4	-3.16
Will Barton	94	95	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.60	11	-14	25	16.1	19.0	-2.85	15.2	11.9	3.36
Danilo Gallinari	80	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-1	-1	15.9	17.9	-1.97	14.7	15.9	-1.19
Jameer Nelson	86	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.33	-5	2	-7	16.8	13.5	3.30	15.0	14.9	0.06

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	85	84	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.10	17	-14	31	14.2	18.9	-4.74	16.1	17.4	-1.28
Klay Thompson	89	89	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.16	13	-10	23	14.2	20.5	-6.36	16.3	16.3	0.01
Marreese Speights	36	33	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.64	-6	9	-15	15.9	14.5	1.43	16.0	16.5	-0.56
Stephen Curry	27	28	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.09	12	-9	21	14.7	15.1	-0.39	16.7	16.2	0.46
Andrew Bogut	47	49	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.17	13	-10	23	14.9	15.1	-0.18	15.7	16.9	-1.23
Shaun Livingston	48	45	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.36	-12	15	-27	16.0	14.1	1.95	16.5	16.2	0.30
Ian Clark	71	69	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.38	-13	16	-29	15.4	14.0	1.38	16.9	15.2	1.61
Andre Iguodala	73	73	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.06	1	2	-1	15.3	14.2	1.14	16.4	16.2	0.23
Jason Thompson	25	25	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.34	-13	16	-29	15.9	14.7	1.18	16.2	16.4	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 97, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	89.3%
WAS 98, ATL 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	89.3%
DEN 95, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.87,0.72,0	89.2%