NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	5.2 [820]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +43.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	92		Comeback	174.4 [17]		LVP	Kyle Anderson (MEM): -52.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.43	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.43	0.08	0.34	-0.01	15	67%	0.46	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.19	0.02	0.20	0.02	20	56%	0.22	4	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.10	0.06	13	64%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Gary Harris	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07	-0.03	0.06	-0.04	11	44%	0.09	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Torrey Craig	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	29%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.38	0.38	0.01	0.32	-0.05	9	47%	0.38	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.03	0.12	-0.09	19	64%	0.31	7	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruno Caboclo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	36%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ivan Rabb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.09	-0.09	0.06	-0.15	-0.00	16	61%	0.07	3	-0.16	6	67%	-0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.53	-0.53	-0.07	-0.46	-0.01	8	50%	-0.31	4	-0.21	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	24.7	14.5	30.4	1.8	38.5	134.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.8%

MEM -1.2%

MEM -18.8%

DEN +32.2%

MEM -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.3	15.7	14.3	96.9	97.9	109.3
season	14.8	15.4		112.0	105.4
opponent	14.2	14.6		107.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	19.0	14.5	13.4	11.3	14.3
MEM	15.3	15.0	15.5	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	52	49	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.38	14	-11	25	12.8	16.1	-3.26	15.9	15.5	0.35
Will Barton	73	73	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.44	9	-6	15	13.9	15.6	-1.70	15.4	16.7	-1.32
Gary Harris	62	62	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.54	4	-1	5	14.9	13.4	1.50	15.7	15.6	0.10
Paul Millsap	60	58	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.51	5	-2	7	14.0	14.8	-0.74	15.9	15.4	0.49
Nikola Jokic	69	69	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.50	5	-2	7	14.4	14.1	0.33	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Juancho Hernangomez	16	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	7	-11	15.2	14.2	1.02	15.8	15.7	0.18
Trey Lyles	29	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.09	-2	5	-7	14.1	14.4	-0.33	15.8	15.6	0.20
Mason Plumlee	38	36	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	7	-11	14.8	14.0	0.74	15.4	15.9	-0.49
Monte Morris	49	46	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.34	5	-2	7	14.3	14.4	-0.14	16.4	15.0	1.41
Torrey Craig	42	39	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	0.16	-17	20	-37	15.9	13.1	2.79	15.1	16.1	-1.05

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson Jr.	49	52	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.05	9	-12	21	15.4	16.0	-0.59	15.7	12.8	2.81
Joakim Noah	46	50	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.23	-6	3	-9	17.5	14.0	3.50	13.8	14.9	-1.10
Ivan Rabb	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.11	-4	1	-5	14.4	15.8	-1.38	15.0	14.3	0.73
Shelvin Mack	33	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-3	3	15.0	16.0	-1.02	15.2	13.8	1.40
Bruno Caboclo	44	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	2	-7	16.5	14.9	1.61	13.8	14.8	-0.94
Marc Gasol	75	76	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-2	1	15.2	17.5	-2.23	14.4	14.0	0.38
Justin Holiday	79	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.42	-6	3	-9	15.6	16.0	-0.37	14.0	16.0	-2.01
Mike Conley	73	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.55	-3	0	-3	16.0	14.6	1.38	14.1	15.3	-1.21
Kyle Anderson	62	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.68	1	-4	5	14.8	17.5	-2.69	14.1	14.8	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.87,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 99, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,0.96,0.58,0	95.1%
SEA 114, MIN 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.89,0.42,0	93.4%
CHA 111, BKN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.79,0.77,0.9,0	91.6%