NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	91		Excitement	6.3 [576]		MVP	Kris Humphries (WAS): +28.1%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	1.7 [651]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -15.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.05	0.01	9	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Andrew Nicholson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	11	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	18	53%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	46%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Jason Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	8	62%	0.06	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.12	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	16	44%	-0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.09	0.18	-0.01	6	79%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	10	59%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Oubre	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	5	70%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	11	32%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	20	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.05	19	57%	0.08	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.7	24.2	15.4	20.2	2.3	30.4	116.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +10.1%

WAS +7.9%

WAS +6.7%

WAS +25.4%

ORL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.1	13.8	14.9	94.8	106.2	105.1
season	14.6	13.8		103.6	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.9		104.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.7	17.0	16.5	15.2	16.1
WAS	11.0	15.1	14.8	14.8	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	20	21	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.01	4	-16	20	16.5	15.9	0.62	13.4	13.9	-0.47
Dewayne Dedmon	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	11.0	16.1	-5.12	17.0	13.7	3.27
Shabazz Napier	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	11.0	16.1	-5.12	17.0	13.7	3.27
Mario Hezonja	31	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-11	10	16.8	15.7	1.05	12.6	14.3	-1.69
Jason Smith	34	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-12	12	15.8	16.2	-0.46	12.1	14.7	-2.63
Evan Fournier	52	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-7	2	16.6	15.4	1.25	15.2	12.2	2.97
Channing Frye	42	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-6	0	17.1	15.3	1.79	13.9	13.7	0.16
Aaron Gordon	51	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-6	0	15.5	16.8	-1.30	13.5	14.2	-0.67
Victor Oladipo	66	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-6	0	15.4	17.5	-2.04	13.6	14.2	-0.68
Nikola Vucevic	61	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.05	-12	0	-12	16.3	15.6	0.68	14.6	12.4	2.28
Tobias Harris	73	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	-1	-10	16.0	16.3	-0.38	13.9	13.5	0.45
Elfrid Payton	48	50	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.19	-17	5	-22	15.7	16.5	-0.79	13.5	14.1	-0.65

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	64	63	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.14	12	0	12	14.5	12.4	2.17	16.8	14.7	2.03
Kelly Oubre	40	40	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-1	14	15.1	12.9	2.27	15.2	16.7	-1.48
Ramon Sessions	57	57	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-1	14	13.4	14.4	-1.03	15.6	16.7	-1.02
Kris Humphries	28	25	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.40	1	11	-10	13.5	13.9	-0.36	14.4	16.6	-2.19
John Wall	77	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	7	-2	14.5	11.1	3.33	16.3	15.1	1.18
Otto Porter	78	76	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	3	6	13.7	14.2	-0.52	16.6	13.8	2.79
Marcin Gortat	69	71	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.26	11	1	10	13.9	13.5	0.36	16.6	14.4	2.19
Garrett Temple	63	64	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	11	-10	12.2	16.7	-4.44	15.5	17.1	-1.59
Drew Gooden	9	9	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	17	-22	11.2	14.1	-2.83	14.3	16.2	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.89,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 85, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	93.6%
ATL 92, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%
MEM 84, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.49,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.69,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,1	92.3%