NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	8.3 [220]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +9.6%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	2.5 [155]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (SAC): -27.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.1	0.12	-0.03	-0.01	28	57%	0.19	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	11	67%	0.19	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	9	68%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	3	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Tim Frazier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	6	57%	0.03	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Allen Crabbe	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	13	38%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	8	31%	-0.07	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	8	28%	-0.09	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Omri Casspi	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.01	8	78%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	42%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	125%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	12	25%	-0.10	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.11,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	0.04	-0.29	0.02	26	56%	-0.04	5	-0.23	12	83%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.11	-0.16	0.01	6	64%	0.04	8	-0.31	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.4	37.2	15.4	28.3	2.0	36.3	142.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +38.9%

SAC -23.0%

POR +17.3%

POR +16.6%

POR +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAC	NBA	POR	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	12.0	14.9	94.2	90.4	105.1
season	15.0	13.9		107.1	104.8
opponent	14.6	14.6		107.1	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.2	15.5	13.6	16.5	15.7
SAC	10.1	11.2	13.1	14.1	12.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Meyers Leonard	65	64	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.33	17	-13	30	15.7	15.6	0.02	12.2	11.8	0.43
Tim Frazier	52	50	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.43	11	-7	18	15.5	15.8	-0.23	13.0	11.2	1.81
Maurice Harkless	70	70	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.44	10	-6	16	15.3	16.3	-0.99	12.4	11.3	1.15
Gerald Henderson	42	42	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-9	22	16.0	15.4	0.54	12.7	11.6	1.17
Allen Crabbe	70	69	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	5	-6	16.0	14.9	1.10	11.8	12.5	-0.76
CJ McCollum	90	92	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	8	-12	15.4	17.3	-1.89	11.8	13.8	-2.03
Mason Plumlee	48	49	-0.20	0.69	-0.89	-0.05	-5	9	-14	15.8	15.5	0.33	12.0	12.1	-0.11
Al-Farouq Aminu	52	53	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	15	-26	15.4	15.9	-0.42	11.1	13.0	-1.85
Noah Vonleh	31	31	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.01	-10	14	-24	16.1	15.5	0.68	11.3	12.4	-1.07

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben McLemore	43	44	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.05	3	-7	10	11.3	12.6	-1.26	15.5	15.8	-0.35
Seth Curry	20	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-8	12	10.8	12.3	-1.47	15.1	15.8	-0.69
Omri Casspi	79	80	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.40	7	-11	18	12.0	12.2	-0.16	15.5	16.1	-0.56
Kosta Koufos	32	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	7	-18	11.7	12.2	-0.55	16.5	15.3	1.18
Rudy Gay	73	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-2	0	12.3	11.4	0.97	16.0	14.8	1.26
Rajon Rondo	84	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-5	6	12.2	11.4	0.79	15.5	16.1	-0.61
DeMarcus Cousins	81	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.36	0	-4	4	12.3	11.2	1.11	15.5	16.4	-0.96
Marco Belinelli	49	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	7	-18	11.2	12.7	-1.50	15.9	15.4	0.45
Darren Collison	59	59	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.39	-11	7	-18	13.0	10.8	2.18	15.5	15.8	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 103, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.02,0	94.5%
MIA 99, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	92.4%
SAC 103, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.53,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	92.4%